Des Moines—Former President Donald Trump heads into the January 15 Iowa caucuses with the support of 48 percent of likely caucus-goers, according to an NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll released Saturday evening, the highest support for a frontrunner the poll has ever recorded ahead of an Iowa caucus. His closest challenger, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley trails him by 28 points with support of just 20 percent of likely caucus-goers, with Florida governor Ron DeSantis clocking in at 16 percent and ex-pharmaceutical CEO Vivek Ramaswamy at just eight percent.
Saturday’s survey is a devastating sign for DeSantis, who has spent the entire presidential cycle staking his campaign in Iowa and telling supporters he will win the state. The poll also means expectations are now sky-high for Trump, who has an even higher lead among first-time caucus-goers in the poll. Meanwhile Haley, who has kept expectations low in Iowa, is hoping she ride the momentum of a second-place place finish there to a surprise upset in the Granite State on January 23.
“One of the kind of softer skills, if you will, of high-level politics is managing expectations,” says Timothy Head, executive director of the Faith and Freedom Coalition. “In the closing days, if not hours, there also is a pretty concerted effort to make sure that that the candidate is exceeding expectations and not falling short.”
Monday’s caucus will also be a test of the pro-DeSantis super PAC Never Back Down, which has taken charge of the candidate’s ground game while simultaneously becoming a political liability for the group over over its string of firings, management issues, and last-minute ad cancellations in the state. A spokesperson for the group tells NR that its volunteers have knocked target voters’ doors five times through in Iowa and nearly a million in total.
But polls suggest the candidate still has little to show for it.
“I’ve been surprised that DeSantis has kind of stalled and maybe lost some ground, even though they’ve got probably one of the best ground games,” says Steve Scheffler, Iowa’s RNC committeeman. “I would say Trump and DeSantis probably have equally really, really good ground games.”
“Nikki’s was a little bit weak, but then they she got endorsed by Americans for Prosperity,” he said of the Charles and David Koch-backed super PAC that is spending millions on her behalf in the primary. “That brought in a lot of paid staff and volunteers.”
The survey comes as most Americans are steeling themselves for an unwanted rematch between Trump and President Joe Biden — two polarizing and unpopular figures who remain their respective parties’ most likely nominees.
Haley had a had a thinly veiled message for prospective Iowa supporters who may have reservations about Trump’s electability in November in the increasingly likely scenario that he wins the nomination. “Don’t complain about what happens in a general election if you don’t participate in this caucus. It matters,” she said during a Friday evening tele-town hall with Pottawattamie County Republicans.