New survey data from the Guttmacher Institute add to a body of data showing that policy decisions have a significant impact on the incidence of abortion.
This week, the Guttmacher Institute released updated abortion estimates for 2024. The new figures indicate that 1,038,100 abortions were performed in 2024. This represents an increase of less than 1 percent since 2023. Overall, this is consistent with a trend of increasing abortion numbers that began in 2017. These new abortion estimates have been covered by mainstream media outlets including CNN, The Hill, the Associated Press, and the Washington Post.
I would encourage pro-lifers to view this new abortion data with some degree of skepticism. These new estimates come from Guttmacher’s Monthly Abortion Provision survey. This is different from Guttmacher’s Abortion Provider Census, which is typically conducted every three years. By Guttmacher’s own admission, the calculations for the Monthly Abortion Provision survey come from a “slimmer portfolio of data” and are designed to generate faster estimates of the incidence of abortion, and so these estimates may be less accurate as Guttmacher’s previous abortion estimates.
That said, these new abortion estimates provide some information that is useful to pro-lifers. They add to a body of data showing that policy decisions have a significant impact on the incidence of abortion. In 2023 a Wisconsin circuit court judge effectively overturned Wisconsin’s ban on abortion. Unsurprisingly, between 2023 and 2024, the number of abortions performed in Wisconsin more than quadrupled. Also, beginning in 2023, Rhode Island started covering elective abortions through its state Medicaid program. Between 2023 and 2024, the number of abortions performed in Rhode Island increased by 20 percent — the fourth-largest percentage increase in the country.
That said, the Guttmacher data also reveal that some pro-life policy victories resulted in in-state abortion reductions. Additionally, in May 2024, Florida began enforcing a heartbeat act that protect preborn children after six weeks’ gestation. Between 2023 and 2024 the number of abortions performed in Florida fell by more than 12,000, a 14 percent decrease. Similarly, South Carolina began enforcing a heartbeat Act in May 2023. Between 2023 and 2024 the number of abortions in South Carolina fell by 36 percent, the largest percentage decline in the United States.
The Guttmacher report also contained some other interesting findings. The number of women who crossed state lines to obtain an abortion fell by over 8 percent between 2023 and 2024. Additionally, in 2024, there was an increase in the fraction of abortions performed by online-only clinics. This shows that a growing number of abortion minded women are forgoing out-of-state travel and instead obtaining chemical abortions via telehealth. Pro-lifers need to step up their efforts to get Trump administration officials at the Food and Drug Administration to restore and strengthen limits on chemical abortion drugs.