Twenty-three of the alliance’s 32 members are at or over 2 percent of GDP. Five of those countries spend more than 3 percent, including the U.S.
The Netherlands’ top military officer said NATO’s current defense-spending target of 2 percent of GDP is not sufficient, in view of the threats facing the alliance.
Asked if he’s optimistic that all NATO members will hit the current target, General Onno Eichelsheim said, “We have no choice. We have to.”
Eichelsheim, the chief of defense of the Netherlands, spoke with National Review last month during the Halifax International Security Forum, an annual defense conference in Canada. His comments reflected the evolving thinking on the 2 percent target within the alliance.
“Two percent is not enough. I think it’s about what you need to fulfill NATO plans to secure your own borders, and if you pay a price for it, it will be more than 2 percent.”
“But I’m very optimistic about the fact that nations will do this,” Eichelsheim added.
Defense spending levels were top of mind at the forum, which focused on threats from Russia and China, and where Canada’s government took flak from U.S. senator Jim Risch for failing to meet the alliance’s 2 percent of GDP benchmark.
Most other NATO members have, though, in recent years started to reach the 2 percent target, which follows President Trump’s vocal efforts to convince allies to spend more money on their defense and Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Then–NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said in July that 23 of the alliance’s 32 members were at or over 2 percent. Five of those countries’ defense budgets were equivalent to more than 3 percent of GDP, including that of the U.S., which is estimated to spend 3.38 percent of GDP, according to NATO. The Netherlands’ defense spending is estimated to reach 2.05 percent of GDP by the end of the year.
Trump’s second term could bring more progress on this front, as he said, during an event in August, that he would press NATO members to reach 3 percent.
There’s support for higher spending from other leaders, too. Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen told NR earlier this year that in view of current security threats, “I’m not sure that 2 percent will be enough.”
Eichelsheim said that absent more investment in NATO countries’ defense industries, “you have a period of vulnerability that you should not have, periods in time that Russia is able to reconstitute faster than we can actually rebuild our forces.”
He also expressed concern that China is eyeing investments in strategic facilities in Canada’s arctic region, to “try to get its boots on the ground” and to expand Beijing’s access in the north.
Eichelsheim said there’s been a shift in how Europe approaches Chinese investment over the past decade or so. “We were too naïve, I think, ten years ago,” he said, adding that he saw that change in thinking when he was director of the intelligence service of the Netherlands. He said countries should not cut all ties with China but that they need to take a closer look at potentially risky foreign investments.