Can Donald Trump win the general election in 2024? Rich and CNN’s Harry Enten say yes, Andy and the Washington Post‘s Henry Olsen say no, Michael says maybe. I’m closer to a no than a maybe, but I’d caution against thinking another Trump term is impossible as opposed to highly unlikely. Here is how I see the race, in big-picture terms.

First, Joe Biden can’t win — or rather, he can’t do anything to win:

What that means is that Biden is a prisoner of events he mostly can’t control. Some of those events may help him, but others (such as the mounting legal and ethical troubles of Hunter and the family) can only hurt. It doesn’t mean Biden is doomed to lose — but if he’s reelected, it will be because his opponent was worse. Which is also why Biden has a huge incentive to do whatever remains in his power to help pick the opponent he is best situated to beat: Trump.

Second, Donald Trump also can’t really do much, if anything, to win:

Again, none of this means it is impossible for Trump to win. The strength of partisanship these days is such that it’s incredibly difficult to drive a modern major-party presidential candidate below 45 percent of the vote or much below 200 electoral votes. Biden’s health could very easily deteriorate so badly that Americans pick Trump because he’s literally the last man standing. But, like Biden, Trump’s appeal is limited and his ability to do anything to expand it is nearly nonexistent. He, like Biden, can only await events.

These don’t have to be the only choices, and we still don’t know if there will be a third-party entrant who breaks out of the margins. But Democratic voters aren’t being offered a genuinely serious alternative to Biden, and Republican voters thus far seem unwilling to abandon Trump. If those are the options, there won’t be much anybody can do besides pray.