WisPolitics.com reports that $45 million—three times the previous record spent on any supreme court race in the country—has been spent on the April 4 Wisconsin supreme court election that could decide the ideological balance of the court for years to come. WisPolitics.com reports progressive Milwaukee judge Janet Protasiewicz continues to hold a decisive advantage in the ad wars, although the gap has closed somewhat since mid-March when Protasiewicz’s campaign alone had “broadcast more than three times as many TV advertisements in Wisconsin as the pro-Kelly groups combined,” according to the New York Times.

But if conservative Dan Kelly pulls off an upset, that wouldn’t be the first time that has happened in a contested Wisconsin supreme court race: 

Wisconsin is a closely divided state where four of the past six presidential elections were decided by less than one percentage point. Conservatives have been underdogs in two supreme-court races in recent memory in which they prevailed by less than a point. In 2011, conservatives were expected to lose amid backlash to Act 10. In 2019, conservative Brian Hagedorn was outspent by a ratio of 14 to one until the last week of the race. He was left for dead by pro-business groups after being attacked as an anti-LGBT bigot for founding a private school that upholds traditional Christian beliefs about marriage and sex. While an internal poll late in the race showed Hagedorn down eight points, Wisconsin voters defied expectations and put Hagedorn over the top on Election Day.