Karl Rove reaches conclusions similar to mine. He writes:

Virginia is a blue state that Mr. Biden carried 54% to 44% in 2020. Last week Republicans won in seven House districts Mr. Biden carried in 2020 by up to 10 points and four Senate districts he won by up to 9 points. Democrats didn’t flip a single district Donald Trump took. These margins don’t fit with the notion that abortion draws large numbers of independents and Republicans to vote for Democratic candidates.

Rove also discusses the Kentucky election, which supports my argument that voters sometimes play against type when electing governors but almost never give full control of their states’ governments to the minority party. Democrats reelected Andy Beshear, while Republicans won everything else that was contested.

Beshear’s victory has been attributed to his opposition to the state’s pro-life law — but since voters in 2022, post-Dobbs, strengthened the Republican majorities in the legislature, that law is going to stay in place.