In a feature in the New York Times, Ron DeSantis further defines himself as a Jacksonian on foreign policy. That is, he cares more about concrete American interests, and wants definable objectives in military operations, than about idealistic crusades to transform the world order. His comments on the Syrian war are apt. And it’s actually a good reminder that if we listened to the hawks in the GOP we would not only be surging in Afghanistan to recapture the territory the Taliban took away from the Afghan National Army over the last decade, but we would still be cleaning up after their policy of regime change in Syria. He also says, in relation to Ukraine, that he condemns the Russian invasion and tactics. But, he says, “I just don’t think that’s a sufficient interest for us to escalate more involvement. I would not want to see American troops involved there.”
Noah Rothman responds as if this were a statement out of left field: “Well, okay. That’s not an option on the table because no serious American policy-maker has advocated such a course.”
Not true. Last year tons of well-credentialed advisers and policy-makers put out a letter calling for the U.S. to create a no-fly zone over Ukraine. The idea became a political football, and there was lots of whining when J. D. Vance called out two of his primary opponents for supporting versions of a Western-led no-fly zone, and saw his polls start to take off. Hawks were upset that the one ruling out a no-fly zone won. Wonder why.
The debate about further involvement of American and NATO personnel is still in the future. Having needlessly defined Ukraine as the theater in which the whole liberal world order is at stake, the policy courtiers around the executive branch will greet any territorial concession as humiliation and an undisguised and unqualified victory not just for Putin but for China. Having again defined the stakes so high, are they really going to be satisfied with whatever outcome is achieved by Germany promising more of its non-operable Leopard Tanks and a few F-16s after the spring offensive? It’s not enough for Eliot Cohen.
Like the Biden administration, conservative Ukraine hawks generally rule out options only temporarily. War is dynamic, after all. And if they have to hazard geopolitical tragedy to get the American public to care more, they will. DeSantis’s commitments matter.