Will there be a Swift-Kelce effect on marriage rates?

The Taylor Swift news stopped the country in a way that brought back memories of the O. J. Simpson Bronco chase — but in a good way! — and immediately escalated in commentariat importance.

Yesterday, I took note of (and was among those) pro-life folks who wished her well — even praying that she and NFL player Travis Kelce (I only vaguely know what team he’s on, such is the sports fan I am) will have a faithful, fruitful, joyful marriage. I did that, as I noted, with the knowledge that neither is likely a reader of National Review, and Taylor Swift is not likely to be seen at a March for Life.

I confess, I didn’t see her witch-coven stage performance until last night. But, with all due respect for, and even much agreement with, Kirk Cameron — who weighed in on her troubling values here — I’m not revising my remarks.

Today, the wonderful Patrick Brown, marriage maven for the policy world — more importantly, to his family — says the Swift-Kelce nuptials will not spark a marriage revolution in the United States. (And while I agree that the pair need not have the weight of a marriage renaissance on their shoulders, it’s not like they don’t already have a ridiculous number of eyes — real and AI — on them.) Brown’s comments are contrary to those of Brad Wilcox — the author of Get Married, who joked that “they must have read the book.” He predicted that we are on the verge of record engagements because of those garden photos released yesterday on Swift’s Instagram account.

Patrick writes:

The woman who once sang about “paper rings” now sports an engagement ring rumored to cost $500,000. This illustrates why the Taylor-Travis engagement is unlikely to lead to a marriage boom. Swift is modeling, not challenging, the idea that marriage is a capstone on young adulthood, something that comes after career success has been achieved. Far from encouraging early family formation, she is following the dominant cultural paradigm that suggests family is something to be pursued once a career has been established.

I share the sentiments. At the same time: Let’s dream a little. Let’s lead.

Yes, her values are a mess. And yes, as Michael Brendan Dougherty pointed out on X, if Taylor decides to have a baby, she’ll technically have a geriatric pregnancy, one of the cruel categorizations of modern medicine. (Far from the only.)

While I’m all for encouraging earlier marriage, it also doesn’t always happen, even when a gal wants it to.

Just as Taylor’s heartbreak songs resonate with many a young woman, so, too, might the love story. I don’t think 24-year-olds who have been dating for two years are going to hold off on getting married because Taylor and Travis are in their mid-30s, or wait until they become Grammy winners and football stars. What resonates for women and men who want to be married is that Travis seems to cherish her. That he asked. That it looks like they might be getting a happily ever after.

That’s not an endorsement of everything either has ever done or said. That’s not expecting the culture to change overnight. But I’m hopeful.

One pro-life site posted a flashback on social media about Swift insisting abortion and Christianity are compatible. Nonsense. But also, she might have absorbed that view from celebrity circles, where it’s common. Yesterday was the feast of the Polish devotion to Our Lady of Czestochowa. She has been known to be a comfort to women healing from abortions they’ve had. That anguish is another level.

There are a lot of women — and men — who would like to be married. Some of them are 22 and some of them are 42. It’s not crazy that Taylor Swift in her not-so-secret garden gives them hope. I choose to believe that we who value marriage — who want to see more flourishing families bound by the sacred union of man and woman — can help make it so. We can be an encouragement and light candles in the darkness with the light of love Swift and Kelce shared yesterday.

Patrick Brown loves a good love story, and he ends his piece with this:

But even if they won’t alter the social trajectory of the United States, the pending Swift-Kelce nuptials are still something to celebrate. Twelve albums of heartache is enough for any woman or man. Here’s to the happy couple.

For now, yes, let’s just celebrate.