Reports that Iowa senator Joni Ernst is retiring are suboptimal for GOP hopes of keeping control of the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterms.

This report, if true, is suboptimal for Republican hopes of keeping control of the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterms.

Ernst won her first Senate bid in 2014 by the comfortable margin of 52 percent to 43.7 percent. In 2020, she won again, 51.7 percent to 45.1 percent. If she ran for reelection in 2026, Ernst would be a heavy favorite again.

The good news for Republicans is that Iowa has shifted from the state of Tom Harkin and Tom Vilsack to a pretty darn red state. In addition to Ernst’s wins, every six years, Iowa Democrats talk themselves into believing they have a shot of knocking off  Chuck Grassley. In 2o22, Grassley had his closest race since 1980. He won with 56 percent to Michael Franken’s 43.9 percent.

Almost no one expected Kamala Harris to have a shot at winning Iowa in 2024 — well, almost no one beyond longtime local pollster Ann Selter — and Trump won, 55.7 percent to 42.5 percent.

Assuming Ernst is indeed not running for reelection, the GOP nominee for the Senate seat will be favored over the Democratic nominee. But this creates one more open seat race in 2026, in addition to the high-profile one in North Carolina, which will be hard-fought and expensive. (There are also open seat races in GOP-leaning Kentucky and Alabama, and Democratic-leaning Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.) Open seat races also often involve primary fights that can get messy.

One silver lining for Republicans: Right now the National Republican Senatorial Committee has $37.5 million in cash on hand, while the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has $11.8 million in cash on hand.