If you were off the site by Monday evening for the Fourth of July, I recommend catching up on Jeff’s in-depth look at Chief Justice John Roberts, a man who vexes conservatives and progressives alike.

There are a number of angles from which to explain most any Supreme Court justice; I have criticized Roberts in the past for his lack of judicial courage, and his relatively mild commitment to originalism makes him naturally seem less principled than, say, Clarence Thomas or Neil Gorsuch. To my mind, however, the best way to understand Roberts and his jurisprudence is that he thinks in terms not only of institutions and their proper spheres of power within our federal system, but also in terms of the proper functioning of those institutions. He will therefore protect institutions whose proper and traditional powers seem threatened, but he will rebuke institutions that try to exercise power without due deliberation and procedure. And he will stand up for the powers of the courts not as all-deciding bodies but as a sort of hall monitor that ensures that everyone else is playing by the rules. Roberts is not pro-democracy or anti-democracy; he thinks democracy has rules, so it really matters whether or not they’ve been followed. This is how he differs from Anthony Kennedy, another “swing justice” but one who took a much more aggressive view of when courts can simply take decisions out of the hands of the elected branches. Only when Roberts thinks there are no rules to play by can he be persuaded to get the courts out of the way entirely.

When you apply this framework, much of Roberts’s work makes more sense. Democracy, administration, and judging are all supposed to be deliberative, and Roberts will strike down anything that doesn’t result from the proper process. So:

I could go on, but you get the point. When Roberts thinks there are rules to apply, he’ll apply them; when he thinks there are processes to be followed, he will force others to do so. That alone won’t always predict all of his decisions, but it will give you good odds of doing so.