On the off chance you missed the strange events of the weekend, there was an attempted coup in Russia — sort of. The Wagner mercenary force, under its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, marched on Rostov-on-Don and Moscow late Friday evening and into Saturday morning before negotiating a truce that, among other things, allows him to keep his position as head of the group. The entire affair has a very confusing quality to it, and the secretive nature of Russian politics means we are unlikely to get a coherent explanation for what exactly happened between Prigozhin and Vladimir Putin. In a similarly vague vein, China released a statement on the events: 

This is Russia’s internal affair. As Russia’s friendly neighbor and comprehensive strategic partner of coordination for the new era, China supports Russia in maintaining national stability and achieving development and prosperity.

Despite the nonchalance of their response, it would be reasonable to assume that Chinese leadership is concerned about Russia’s internal instability. The “new era” Chinese leadership seeks to usher in — an era of Chinese global leadership at America’s expense — will require Russian support. Should the Russian regime collapse under internal pressures, China will be left challenging the American-led world order alone. As Noah Rothman observed in February, China’s continued calls for peace in Ukraine suggest a level of discomfort with how their Russian partners have mismanaged the war. 

Russian instability opens the door for some interesting possibilities. As Bobby Miller wrote in April, the growing China–Russia partnership is not as stable or equitable as those in the West fear. China’s ambitions may not include a coequal partner, and the new alignment could serve as a temporary holding action while China solidifies its positions elsewhere. The partnership also isn’t costless for Russia, as Miller noted: 

But Russia could easily get sucked into the red dragon’s black hole rather than jointly projecting power with China as partner. Michael Beckley, an American scholar of grand strategy and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, told National Review that “schisms may open up between them as China begins to exact concessions from its newfound vassal.” Beijing may seek more advantageous trade agreements, particularly in the energy sector, from Moscow, for instance. China is also supplanting Russia as the biggest player in its backyard, Central Asia.

Continued Russian failures in Ukraine and an unraveling domestic situation could move China to get more directly involved in internal Russian affairs in exchange for continued support. If Putin can’t stabilize his position, he may be forced to acquiesce to further Chinese involvement or risk alienating his country’s most important ally. At the very least, the events of the weekend will force China to take a long hard look at the benefits of maintaining wholehearted endorsement of Russia’s actions.