Iran, in an attempt to bolster its proxies in Sudan while simultaneously positioning matériel and men around its regional and religious adversary Saudi Arabia, is sending attack drones (specifically the Mohajer-6) to the Sudanese Armed Forces, who are in a prolonged conflict with rebels operating under the name Rapid Support Forces. The Red Sea that’s already been made inhospitable via the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen could become that much more so should the Sudanese act similarly in order to secure Iran’s favor.
Jay Solomon reports for Semafor:
The Gaza war has made Iran’s regional network of allies, known as the Axis of Resistance, front-page news. But the reality is that Tehran has been building up this coalition for decades. And gaining leverage, if not control, over the Middle East’s strategic waterways — including the Persian Gulf, Suez Canal, and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait — is a central feature of Iran’s strategy.
The Houthi attacks in recent months on ships moving through the Red Sea — which need to transit the Suez Canal to reach Europe — has threatened the entire global economy. Many commercial lines, wary of being targeted by Houthi drones and missiles, have redirected their ships to travel south around the Horn of Africa to reach European markets and the U.S. This significantly raises shipping costs and time.
The U.S. and U.K. have launched a sustained campaign of military strikes against Houthi targets in recent weeks in an effort, which has been only partially successful, to free up Red Sea trade. But U.S. and Mideast officials believe Iran views Sudan as providing a second front from which to challenge U.S. and allied navies in the Red Sea. Sudan sits directly across the waterway from Yemen.
The Biden administration hasn’t done enough offensively to dissuade Iran, let alone its proxies, from their destructive course against international peace, and we’re offering nothing in the form of enticements to blunt Iran’s efforts. International relations is accepting the presence of the least villainous elements of a region and doing what one can to sustain them in that role. Biden, and before him Obama, have strengthened the worst elements of the Middle East (e.g., Iran nuclear deal, ISIS, and Kabul . . . give me five more minutes, I’ll have another twelve) while undermining the positions of those friendliest to U.S. objectives (e.g., Israel and Saudi Arabia).
As James H. McGee recently wrote, we’re at war with Iran whether we like it or not. Their movements in the open field should be met with American counters.