One other point to add to the discussion of Florida’s Governor Ron DeSantis’ comments about Russia and Ukraine: by the time anyone votes in the Republican primaries in January – never mind in the general election in November 2024 — the circumstances of the Russian invasion of Ukraine will probably look considerably different. It may look better for the Ukrainians, or it may look worse. In fact, judging from this grim account from Washington Post reporters Isabelle Khurshudyan, Paul Sonne and Karen DeYoung, the war may be effectively over by then.
U.S. and European officials have estimated that as many as 120,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or wounded since the start of Russia’s invasion early last year, compared with about 200,000 on the Russian side, which has a much larger military and roughly triple the population from which to draw conscripts. Ukraine keeps its running casualty numbers secret, even from its staunchest Western supporters.
Statistics aside, an influx of inexperienced draftees, brought in to plug the losses, has changed the profile of the Ukrainian force, which is also suffering from basic shortages of ammunition, including artillery shells and mortar bombs, according to military personnel in the field.
“The most valuable thing in war is combat experience,” said a battalion commander in the 46th Air Assault Brigade, who is being identified only by his call sign, Kupol, in keeping with Ukrainian military protocol. “A soldier who has survived six months of combat and a soldier who came from a firing range are two different soldiers. It’s heaven and earth.”
“And there are only a few soldiers with combat experience,” Kupol added. “Unfortunately, they are all already dead or wounded.”
Such grim assessments have spread a palpable, if mostly unspoken, pessimism from the front lines to the corridors of power in Kyiv, the capital. An inability by Ukraine to execute a much-hyped counteroffensive would fuel new criticism that the United States and its European allies waited too long, until the force had already deteriorated, to deepen training programs and provide armored fighting vehicles, including Bradleys and Leopard battle tanks.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the Ukrainian spring offensive is expected to begin in May or June; then again, no leader ever wants to publicly announce a specific appointment with the opposing army.
The offensive is “a question of months—one-and-a-half, two, two-and-a-half months away,” said Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. “We are accumulating our resources.” Seeking to maintain an element of surprise, he and other Ukrainian officials declined to discuss where along the 530-mile-long active front line Ukraine may seek to strike.
How long will it take for a Ukrainian spring offensive to start generating results? Or are the Ukrainians too hard up for ammunition and artillery to gain a lot of ground?
The Ukrainians no doubt will insist they will continue fighting until they’ve expelled every last Russian from every last square inch of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea. The Biden administration, and the rest of NATO, may well be willing to accept a ceasefire with some minimal territorial concessions to the Russians. They won’t like that prospect, but they may well see it as preferable to continued fighting and continued civilian casualties.
If next autumn, the battle lines in Ukraine have barely moved, a lot of Americans – and other leaders of NATO – may well conclude it’s time to bring the human suffering to an end. DeSantis referring to the Russian invasion of the sovereign nation of Ukraine as “a territorial dispute between Ukraine and Russia” will likely not be a big factor in the GOP primaries or the general election.