The increasing number of incidents taking place in the “gray zone,” the term for activity that falls somewhere between peace and war, shows not only that Russia is increasing its pressure on the West to ease back on its support for Ukraine, but that it is confident that there is little to be lost — and quite a bit to be gained — from increasing that pressure.

While the cause of the recent crash of a DHL plane in Vilnius (which has been the source of considerable speculation) remains uncertain, Guy Kelly and Ella Nunn, writing in the Daily Telegraph, list enough cases of sabotage for it to be clear that escalation is underway:

The recent bomb scares that have hobbled London, from Euston Square and Gatwick Airport to the US Embassy. The drones spotted circling near US Air Force bases in the UK. The explosion at a weapons manufacturing facility in Wales in April.

The telecommunications cables severed in the Baltic Sea earlier this month. The many arson attacks, including on a Ukrainian-owned business in Leyton, East London, in March. The successful attempts to interfere with Czech rail operators. The ransomware attack on an NHS provider in June. The television satellites disrupted and damaged, causing changes to programming across Europe. The defector gunned down in Spain in February. The assassination attempt on the chief executive of a German arms manufacturer.

And there are, Kelly and Nunn point out, “dozens of other worrying incidents that could be grouped with them.” In addition to the increase in the number of incidents, there appears to be a ramping up of their severity, so much so that there are growing fears that, to use the jargon, a “mass-casualty event” may be in the offing.

Kelly & Nunn:

In July, Western security officials said Russia was responsible for sending two incendiary devices to DHL logistics hubs in Germany and the UK as part of a wider campaign to ignite blazes aboard aircraft.

And should such a plot succeed and cause widespread casualties, what then?