


This weekend, the CBS News poll offered another really grim statistic about the public’s perception of President Biden’s age and health: “Only a third of voters think that Mr. Biden would finish a second term.” The survey found 44 percent of voters think Biden would “leave office” before the end of his term, and 22 percent aren’t sure. The survey asked the same question about Donald Trump, and found 55 percent of voters think Trump would finish a second term, 16 percent thought he would leave office before his term ends, and 29 percent weren’t sure.
The survey found that 44 percent of voters thought only Trump is physically healthy enough to serve as president, 16 percent thought only Biden, 12 percent said both are sufficiently healthy, and 29 percent said neither of the two men is healthy enough to serve as president.
Perhaps at next summer’s Democratic convention in Chicago, the crowd will chant, “Some more years! Some more years!”
Imagine, for a moment, that both Biden and Kamala Harris were persuaded by the David Ignatius column and shocked the world by announcing they would not seek another term. And after an intense but messy primary, the Democratic party chose to nominate Generic Governor, (D-One of the States in the Middle). And Generic Governor selected Generic Senator (D-One of the Other States) as his or her running mate.
Now, Generic Governor would inevitably bring some particular flaws and weaknesses to the race. He, or she, would probably not begin the race with the same name ID that Biden has, although after accepting the nomination at the Democratic convention, Generic Governor would become well-known from coast to coast. He or she might have some lingering controversy or scandal from their time as governor. He or she probably wouldn’t be a perfect communicator, and the focus groups might indicate that some trait, attribute, or tic of the candidate rubbed them the wrong way.
But Generic Governor would also have certain advantages. For starters, Generic Governor would be extremely unlikely to be an octogenarian. Biden turns 81 in November.
Generic Governor could presumably give a speech or remarks without a teleprompter, and not make strange comments about just following the orders of his staff, or call someone a “lying dog-faced pony soldier,” or casually refer to “African Americans and Hispanic workers and veterans, you know, the workers without high school diplomas.” Generic Governor would probably not constantly tell anecdotes that aren’t true, from claiming he used to drive a tractor trailer, to claiming he taught classes at the University of Pennsylvania, to claiming he was arrested while trying to see Nelson Mandela in South Africa, to claiming Israeli Prime Minster Golda Meir wanted him to be her liaison to the Egyptians about the Suez Canal.
Generic Governor would probably not need a behind-the-scenes arrangement to get reporters’ questions ahead of time.
Generic Governor would presumably not tell Americans who had just lost everything in a massive forest fire that he can relate because of his experience with a small kitchen fire in 2004.
Generic Governor could presumably appear in public before 10 a.m. and after 4 p.m..
Generic Governor would probably appear at multiple campaign events on weekends, instead of spending almost every weekend at a beach house in Delaware.
Generic Governor could run on the importance of strengthening the Internal Revenue Service and the enforcement of tax laws, without a son who is arguing that the IRS is abusive, untrustworthy, law-breaking and targeting people because of their politics.
Generic Governor could run on the Biden administration’s changes to gun laws without a son who is currently facing three indictments on gun charges, including two charges of misleading federal investigators, and who argues that the Department of Justice is violating the Second Amendment.
If Generic Governor has grandchildren, he probably has always been clear about how many he has, and didn’t need to be shamed into acknowledging a four-year-old girl living in Arkansas with her mother.
In other words, yes, Biden enjoys the advantages of incumbency. But he also brings some really unique weaknesses to the general election.