Noah Rothman’s recap of the long history of U.S.-Russian summits ending badly for overeager American presidents should be sobering for anyone who hopes for a dramatic breakthrough in Anchorage this Friday.
The Russians, Noah writes, want “Ukraine to surrender vast swaths of unoccupied territory, including major industrial towns and cities, and to ratify the legitimacy of Russia’s previous conquests.” But Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin “will likely accept something short of that if it leaves Ukraine vulnerable to internal subversion and, eventually, a third invasion.”
On the other hand, “we know what Trump’s goal for this summit is: peace, or something he can plausibly call peace.”
It’s unclear what tactics he will deploy in the pursuit of that goal, but there is an imbalance of objectives that favors Russia. Moscow is not suing for peace, nor is Kyiv. It’s Trump who has that goal in mind, and it is he who is putting that ask to Putin. The Kremlin’s acquiescence will come at a cost.
That’s why it’s so important for President Trump to be prepared to walk away from a bad deal. A diplomatic surrender to the Kremlin that sells out the Ukrainians in exchange for a cease-fire would not redound to America’s interests or Trump’s political fortunes, even if it gets the president the short-term headlines he wants, i.e., anything that includes the word “cease-fire.”
Indeed, I’d argue that Trump would benefit politically, and his stature would be raised in many quarters, if he’s widely seen by the American people as having turned down an unserious and self-serving offer by the Russian dictator. If Trump walks away from a bad deal, he would strengthen his position and his support for whatever comes next, especially if that “next” includes unsatisfactory and difficult pills to swallow. And that, in my view, goes for not only pro-Ukrainian Americans and our European allies but also the Ukrainians themselves.
I think it’s likely that Trump and his advisers know this: The White House has spent the last week telegraphing that while Trump wants a deal that leads to peace, he knows that the Russians have been untrustworthy interlocutors and that they have played fast and loose with his patience. That said, anyone who remembers Trump’s political self-immolation the last time he met Putin face-to-face (in Helsinki in 2018) can be forgiven for wondering whether President “Art of the Deal” will actually know when to walk away if presented with a bad deal sweetened with weapons-grade Russian flattery and blandishments. We shall see.