I completely agree with Noah’s correct and wise admonition below about how modesty is called for in evaluating events like those in Russia at the moment, and often the unexpected or unimaginable happens. That said, I have a hard time seeing how Prigozhin can prevail, unless the entire regime and military in Russia have completely lost their will to fight. The farther his relatively small convoy gets from Rostov, the more exposed it is — among other things, it could just run out of fuel. Prigozhin doesn’t have an air force, or a navy, or large numbers, or limitless supplies. Yes, unlikely things sometimes happen, but, again, unless the regime has basically already collapsed or been overthrown without anyone on the outside being aware of it, the odds here are very long.