Democrats must decide if they want to repeat their mistakes or revise their positions on the Hamas–Israel war.
Nobody knows what Donald Trump means when he promises to unleash “hell” on Hamas if his demands are unmet. Trump himself may not know, but we all may soon find out.
“Israel will resume ‘intense fighting’ in Gaza if Hamas doesn’t release hostages by midday Saturday,” read a Times of Israel report. The warning comes from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who echoed Donald Trump’s Monday night remarks, in which the American president unilaterally revised the terms of the cease-fire and demanded the return of all October 7 hostages by the end of the week.
As Phil observed, Trump’s more uncompromising stance alleviated the “fear” that Trump envoy Steve Witkoff would pressure the president and his Israeli counterpart into endorsing the cease-fire terms that Joe Biden’s officials had established in May of last year. It’s not clear why this wasn’t the administration’s approach from the start, though. Instead, at the outset of the administration, Witkoff defended the terms that Biden’s team had ironed out with Hamas’s proxies in Doha — the previous administration’s “math,” as he repeatedly called it, which sought to exchange 1,904 Palestinian prisoners for 33 hostages, some of whom are already dead. When it comes to throwing America’s weight around, Trump has a better feel for it than the real estate investor he tapped to navigate Middle Eastern politics.
If the Trump administration’s efforts to navigate the still simmering conflict in Gaza are unpredictable, the Democratic Party’s response to the cease-fire’s collapse is unlikely to be similarly inventive.
We can assume for the sake of our own sanity that Trump will not order the U.S. military to intervene in the most intractable conflict on earth. Presumably, Trump’s vision of “hell” consists of his allowing Israel the license it needs to pursue its stated objective in the war Hamas started on 10/7: to oust Hamas from power and replace it with a more responsible civilian authority.
If the fighting starts again, Democrats will surely be tempted to blame Trump and Netanyahu rather than their own framework, which functionally sanctioned Hamas’s custody over both Israeli and American citizens until the “phase” at which they can be released. They will want to argue that the Trump administration has taken the leash off America’s Israeli partners by refusing to withhold ordnance and military equipment (really dangerous stuff, like . . . earthmovers). They might even succumb to their penchant for self-harm by deferring to the anti-Israeli activists, who have spent the last 16 months making themselves as unpopular as possible.
Old habits die hard, especially when they’re not replaced with healthier behaviors. For all the soul-searching in which Democrats engaged after the election, precious little focus has been devoted to the Biden-Harris team’s snakebit deference to one of America’s least-loved activist causes. But if the shooting recommences, the protests and all the menace that accompanies them are sure to return as well. Democrats will have to ask themselves if they want to repeat their mistakes or forge a new path.