Trump is in a better, stronger position today than he was eight years ago — but things can change.
The Drudge Report is leading today with two stories noting Trump’s relatively weak polling numbers at the start of his term.
The outfit 538’s polling average shows Trump at 49.8 percent approval and 42.8 percent disapproval — a +7 spread.
Reuters/Ipsos has a poll out showing Trump with a 45 percent approval rate. It also shows that 46 percent of Americans disapprove.
For comparison, the RealClearPolitics average shows Trump at a +5.4 point job approval rating and a +1.1 percent favorable rating.
It’s of course never a good idea to take a single poll, or even a polling average, as gospel. But as a trend, what can we say about where President Trump stands politically?
Well, Trump seems to be in a better, stronger position today than he was eight years ago. That’s notable. While he is sitting at even to a-little-better-than-even today, Trump started his presidency in 2017 in a weaker position at just +3.2, according to 538; today’s approval rating would have been one of the best of Trump’s entire first term.
On the other hand, Trump’s political standing is much weaker than most of his predecessors: According to 538, Biden began 2021 at +21.8, Obama began 2009 at +46.9, and George W. Bush began 2001 at +27.9.
Most Republicans are, of course, quite happy with the leadership of Trump during his first week and a half in office. But, for the general electorate as a whole, Trump’s popularity, and his mandate, is arguably more limited: Get Joe Biden and his sclerotic administration out of office, stop inflation, control the border.
On Day One, of course, Trump fulfilled the first part of his mandate. But inflation has been stubborn (the Fed is likely to pause its rate-cutting program this week). Immigration will be a tough nut to crack — especially in the critical areas beyond border enforcement, such as the fight over birthright citizenship or statutory reforms to programs like the H1-B visa.
And, of course, there’s always “events, dear boy, events”: Joe Biden was popular until June 2021’s Afghanistan withdrawal debacle. He never recovered.
If Trump can get the economy moving, work to control inflation, cut the Gordian Knot of renewing the Trump tax cuts with only a vote to spare in the House, and project energy, vitality, and stability at home and abroad, he could buck the trend of recent second-term presidents and grow more popular in office.
If not, his relative weak political position — and the limits of his mandate — will become apparent soon enough.