As you may have noticed, Democrats already have a scripted talking point when reporters prod them about the GOP’s “big, beautiful,” House-passed reconciliation bill: Republicans cutting Medicaid for the poor to fund tax cuts for their billionaire friends.

This attack line has prompted Republicans to develop their own comeback: Whereas the GOP is “protecting Medicaid” with common-sense reforms, Democrats “want Medicaid for illegal immigrants and no work requirements.” That’s according to a recent strategy memo released by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), the House GOP campaign arm tasked with helping House Republican candidates craft their electoral message for the 2026 midterms.

In the NRCC’s view, Republicans should respond to Democrats’ Medicaid-focused messaging by going on offense with some variation of the following message: We’re strengthening Medicaid by rooting out waste, fraud and abuse, adding commonsense work requirements for able-bodied adults, and cutting funding for states that provide entitlements to illegal immigrants.

While those talking points don’t exactly roll off the tongue, Republicans believe that keeping the Medicaid conversation centered around immigration — an issue that Republicans have an edge on with voters — is the best strategy to insulate vulnerable incumbents from entitlement-focused attacks relating to the reconciliation bill. What’s more, GOP operatives running 2026 races tell National Review that Democrats’ Medicaid-focused message isn’t the “silver bullet” that Democrats think it is and won’t resonate as much with voters as the abortion issue did after the overturning of Roe v. Wade.

Republicans also remain convinced that “tax relief, not tax hikes” is a winning message that will hurt the out-of-power party, considering that in opposing last week’s House-passed reconciliation bill, every vulnerable House Democrat voted against increased border security enforcement funding and extending the expiring provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that President Donald Trump signed during his first term.

Here’s how that message is already making its way into ads, according to an NRCC paid advertising campaign that’s currently targeting 25 swing-district Democrats:

You’re working harder than ever.

So why is [Democratic Congressman XYZ] voting for the largest U.S. tax hike in generations?

While illegal immigrants get taxpayer-funded meals, housing, and benefits.

______ would punish families, making them pay thousands of dollars more.

Illegals get freebies, you get the bill.

Tell _______ : Help Americans, not illegal immigrants.

On the flip side, Democrats believe Republicans are starting off with the disadvantage on the Medicaid issue, given that it’s baked in with voters that Republicans traditionally want to gut entitlements (even though the White House warned congressional GOP leaders against massive entitlement cuts when drafting the legislation, and the current House-passed bill includes work requirement exceptions for pregnant women, disabled Americans, and the elderly).

As Senate Republicans make their own tweaks to the bill, Democrats tell National Review that they plan to humanize the entitlement attack line by attaching names and faces of GOP lawmakers’ constituents — teachers, veterans, etc. — who will lose Medicaid coverage because of Republican policy. And even though it’s impossible to tell where the tariff debate will be a year from now — let alone a few weeks from now — Democrats also believe that the uncertainty surrounding tariffs will be an easy issue to tie to Republicans given the administration’s whipsawing trade policy.

Here’s how those talking points are making their way into Democratic ads:

There’s one person who thinks everything in your life should cost more…

It’s your [Republican Congressman XYZ].

First, he backed the tariffs causing prices to soar.

Now he’s sticking you with an even bigger bill.

He just cast the deciding vote to raise the cost of your groceries and cut your health care including Medicaid . . .

To pay for tax cuts for the ultra-rich.

You can’t afford Representative ____s’ votes in Congress. Tell him to stop this bill now. 

That same script is playing in digital ads in 26 swing congressional districts across the country, paid for by the House Democratic leadership-aligned group, House Majority Forward, and Senate Democrats are out with Medicaid-focused ads this week as well.

Simply put: At this stage, Democrats are convinced that keeping the focus on Medicaid cuts is the best path to wresting away control of the lower chamber from the GOP. As ranking House Rules Committee Democrat Jim McGovern recently told National Review: “The one thing about the Republicans’ reconciliation bill is that Democrats are united like never before. . . . From the left to the right within our party, everybody understands that this is a crappy bill.”

That’s obviously a rosy characterization of an unpopular, out-of-power, leaderless party that is perceived as being out of touch with working-class voters and is still extremely divided over how to project a unified message that isn’t simply anti-Trump in nature. But it also gives us an early look into how Democrats plan to go on offense in the coming months as the 2026 midterms kick off in earnest — tie everything to entitlements.