For the first time, CNN polling has picked up a clear majority of Americans disapproving of Trump’s economic stewardship.

My general view of Donald Trump’s ongoing and erratic trade and tariff policy is that it’s more likely to damage the U.S. economy and limit economic growth than to send America into an outright recession.

Of course, if the trade war rages out of control, if all sides dig in and refuse to budge, then the cumulative effects could be worse. But if, as I think most likely, Donald Trump scores some “concessions” from the perfidious Canadians and is able to boast about the merits of some new and glorious trade deal while climbing down from the imposition of significant tariffs due to the economic turmoil, if the markets return somewhat to an equilibrium, and if the 2017 supply-side tax cuts are extended by Congress, then the U.S. economy will probably grow, even if more modestly than it would have otherwise. Whatever the damage to your 401(k) the last several weeks, things could very well be more or less fine in six or nine months’ time.

We should all know by now, however, that a president’s political standing is not always quite so directly connected to the real-world economic results of his policies.

The recession that began in 1990 and doomed George H. W. Bush’s chance for reelection was over by March 1991. Or so the data said. But the American people still felt like there was an ongoing recession at the time voters went to the polls in November 1992. No matter what the economists might have said, Americans’ dim view of the elder Bush’s economic superintendence contributed to his defeat and the election of Bill Clinton. Conversely, Barack Obama largely escaped political consequences for his (mis)management of the economy as he sought reelection in 2012. By and large, the American people blamed the previous administration of George W. Bush for the laggard economic growth during the Obama era.

In politics, perception is often reality.

That’s why a new data point on Americans’ perception of Trump’s economic stewardship should be seen as a klaxon call for the Trump administration and Republicans in Congress.

Up until this week, CNN’s polling had never recorded a majority of Americans disapproving of Donald Trump’s handling of the economy. Trump has been more or less popular over the last decade, but Americans have always been prone to view the billionaire businessman as generally good for jobs, the stock market, and their pocket books.

But now, for the first time, CNN has picked up a clear majority of Americans — 56 percent — disapproving of his economic stewardship.

Again, that may be fair or unfair, the current market turmoil brought on by Trump’s tariff threats may be permanent or not — but if Trump’s standing as the guy for economic growth is punctured, then his second term will be significantly affected.

Just look at Joe Biden as an example for how things can go south, and quickly, once the public’s perceptions are formed.

Biden’s political standing never recovered after the American people concluded, just eight months into his first year in office, that after the Afghanistan withdrawal debacle, he just wasn’t up to the job of commander in chief.

According to the RealClearPolitics average, for the first six months of his term, Biden had consistent approval rates in the low-to-mid 50s. But as the crisis in Afghanistan deepened in the summer of 2021, Americans’ perception of Biden started to drop precipitously. After August 2020, more Americans disapproved of Biden than approved of him. And for the final three-and-a-half years of his term, Biden never once touched 46 percent approval, settling down near 40 percent over most of 2024 as many Americans came to view Biden as too old for the job.

If Trump doesn’t reverse course and figure out a way to instill economic confidence and stability, if prices continue to rise, and if the trend that CNN has picked up sets in permanently, it won’t matter that Trump has sent the Woke mob and DEI into retreat, it won’t matter if or how he can impose a cease-fire on Ukraine or Israel, and it won’t matter that he pulled off the most remarkable political comeback in American history just four months ago.

If the American people sour on Donald Trump’s handling of the economy, his administration will be seen as a failure.