‘Price increases are good, actually’ is unlikely to play well with most voters.

Democrats and their media allies engaged in a legendary bit of economic illiteracy when they blamed “corporate greed” for inflation. President Biden repeatedly expressed his dismay that major corporations were working together to raise prices simultaneously, a conspiracy theory for which there is no evidence. Why did they all become greedier at the same time the Fed increased the money supply and the government increased spending? Now that inflation has moderated, does that mean corporations became less greedy? It made no sense.

But now, some Republicans are probably going to make their own version of the argument that corporations are to blame for higher prices. Trump’s promises of tariffs have consistently been accompanied by assurances that prices will not rise because foreign corporations will lower prices to retain market access. This is unlikely to actually happen, at which point Republicans will blame those corporations and maybe even American corporations for passing the cost of the tax along to consumers.

For example, Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent said that China will “eat any tariffs that go on.” The idea is that China’s exports to the U.S. are so valuable that Chinese companies would cut their prices to keep the after-tariff price the same as the pre-tariff price. That way, Americans would keep buying Chinese products, and the Chinese companies would effectively bear the burden of the tax.

This could be true in theory, but we know from experience this is not how the China tariffs worked last time. Nearly the entire cost of the tax was passed on to Americans. China retaliated with tariffs of its own, hurting American exporters. Both countries were made worse off.

(As an aside, it’s worth noting that if Bessent’s theory does play out as he says, then the tariffs would serve little protective purpose for U.S. industries. If China “eats” the tariffs, then Americans would keep buying Chinese goods at the same prices they did before the tariffs went into place. With tariffs, there’s always a catch.)

This time around, China has already announced retaliatory tariffs on American agricultural products. It has also brought a case against the U.S. through the World Trade Organization, indicating that it is not content to cut prices in response. Canada, too, has announced retaliatory tariffs.

When Americans start to feel the higher costs from the goods affected by tariffs, and start to wonder why American exporters are being harmed by supposedly pro-export policies, the temptation will be very strong for Republicans to blame the corporations for not doing what they wanted.

It’s easy to see how this argument would go, especially from those with nationalistic inclinations: “We adopted an America First trade policy, but the global corporations aren’t rooted in America. They would rather protect their Chinese partners, even if it means higher prices for Americans. We’re summoning top CEOs to the White House tomorrow to tell them to cut prices and prove their loyalty to the American worker.”

This would, of course, be hot garbage, because the White House would be the reason for the price increases. The tariffs are coming from the White House, unilaterally, over the objections of many American businesses. But politics is one heckuva drug.

You can already see the first step of Republicans making this argument, which is acknowledging that tariffs will in fact raise prices for Americans. Senator Markwayne Mullin (R., Okla.) said, “Are the American people ready to get the country back on track and do what it takes to make that happen? Absolutely. . . . It’s going to affect a lot of companies. We’re going to have to adjust some prices for it, but the president is tired of people taking advantage of our country.” (Here “adjust” is another word for “raise.”) Representative Mark Alford (R., Mo.) said, “We all have a role to play in this to right size our government, and if I have to pay a little bit more for something, I’m all for it to get America right again.”

“Price increases are good, actually” is unlikely to play well with most voters, so expect this line of argument to be ditched soon. That leaves Republicans the option of acknowledging that Trump was wrong about tariffs (impossible), or finding another scapegoat. Big corporations are already in the crosshairs of populists for other reasons; why not make them the scapegoat for tariffs, too?