Germany’s general election will be held on February 23. As of January 20, Politico’s poll of polls revealed that the center-right partnership between the CDU and CSU, Angela Merkel’s old bloc, was still ahead on 30 percent, but had shed a point or two (a later poll suggests that that may have reversed). Some way behind were the right-populist party AfD (Alternative for Germany) on 20 percent, and behind them (on 17 percent) were the center-left SPD of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, followed by the Greens on 14 percent. The current government is made up of the Greens and the SPD. The election was precipitated by the departure from the coalition of the free market(ish) FDP, which seems unlikely to reach the 5 percent benchmark needed to get back into parliament (it is currently stuck on 4 percent).
Looking at those numbers alone would lead fairly naturally to the conclusion that the next government would be a coalition between the CDU/CSU, now led by Friedrich Merz (a considerable improvement—a low, low bar—on Merkel) and the AfD, but the AfD is, to use the usual phrase, not salonfähig, a term that can be loosely translated as socially unacceptable.
I wrote about the AfD in September:
Germany’s AfD, once a conservative, economically liberal “professors’ party,” known for its doubts about German participation in the euro, has, over the years, evolved, particularly in the former East Germany, into a party that genuinely merits that much-abused label of “far right.” There are many reasons for its transformation, not least its opposition to the lax immigration policies pursued by Germany’s establishment including, above all, Angela Merkel’s reckless and self-indulgent decision to throw open Germany’s doors in 2015. The AfD’s ascent is another part of Merkel’s legacy.
There has been a consensus among Germany’s mainstream parties that the AfD (a party now rejected even by Marine Le Pen’s RN) must be kept behind a firewall, a consensus reinforced by the EU. When Elon Musk streamed a conversation on X with the AfD’s co-chairwoman, Alice Weibel, the party’s more moderate “face” (albeit someone capable, as she showed on that occasion, of, let’s just say, a certain disingenuousness), a team of “up to” 150 EU Commission officials were listening in, part of an operation to see whether the chat conformed with the DSA (Digital Services Act) the law that Brussels clearly intends to use as a vehicle for online censorship (a topic for another day but one that seems certain to lead to a major conflict between the U.S. and EU).
If Merz sticks with the firewall, his most likely option will be to enter into an intellectually incoherent coalition with the SPD. If he can, he will do so without bringing in the Greens, and he must be hoping that the FDP can hit that 5 percent threshold.
Meanwhile, he is toughening the CDU/CSU’s position on immigration control.
Germany’s opposition leader Friedrich Merz is under fire for vowing strict border controls if he is elected chancellor, with the frontrunner citing a deadly knife attack that was allegedly carried out by a rejected asylum seeker as justification for a migration overhaul.
The leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) on Thursday presented a five-point migration plan calling for, among other things, a “de facto entry ban” for all people without valid documents and permanent control of all of Germany’s borders.
Merz announced his plan a day after two people, including a 2-year-old boy, were killed and three others injured during an attack in the Bavarian city of Aschaffenburg.
The suspect, arrested shortly afterwards, is a 28-year-old Afghan with a history of psychiatric problems and violence who said over a month ago that he would leave Germany voluntarily.
Germany already has “temporary” border controls in place (something permitted under the EU’s Schengen rules). Those are due to expire on March 15, although they can be extended under certain conditions. Merz has (correctly) described the EU’s internal border regime as “recognizably dysfunctional”, a view not shared by parties to his left. Merz, who has referred to Germany’s right to assert the primacy of German law (a heretical idea in the EU) is planning to press on:
“I refuse to recognize that the acts of Mannheim, Solingen, Magdeburg and now Aschaffenburg are supposed to be the new normal in Germany,” he said. “Enough is enough. We are faced with the shambles of an asylum and immigration policy that has been misguided in Germany for 10 years.”
If elected, he says that he would implement his plan on day one. He has also said that voting for the plan would be a condition of admission to a coalition led by him. Moreover, he wants to force the pace by having a vote on the proposal before the election. Merz is clearly determined to limit the extent to which he can be outflanked to his right by the AfD. For its part, the AfD has said that it favored Merz’s plan (in fact it claimed to have thought of it first) and would vote for it. There is a possibility that such a law could get through in the current parliament even without the support of the Greens and SPD if the FDP (which may be open to it), AfD and the curious BSW (hard left, but tough on immigration) all rallied to the side of the CDU/CSU.
Merz has repeatedly said that he respects the firewall, that he won’t enter into government with the AfD, and that he will not cooperate with them on parliamentary motions (perhaps a reference to the arrangements seen in Denmark and Sweden where minority center-right governments have ruled with the tacit support of the populist right). However, Weibel is claiming that the firewall has now fallen and the SPD is warning that that moment would occur if the immigration law were passed with AfD support. Both are exaggerating, but the electoral math points to a rough road ahead.
Speaking of rough roads, data have been released showing that Germany’s economy declined for the second consecutive year in 2024. It is forecast to eke out a tiny recovery this year. The firewall may be crumbling, but the EU’s economic “powerhouse” is already in undoubtedly poor repair.