A new independent poll by the University of North Florida shows Florida governor Ron DeSantis holding a commanding lead over Florida resident and former president Donald Trump in a 2024 GOP primary match-up:

While one might be tempted to ignore Florida polls because DeSantis has more of a homefield advantage than Trump, that was also true of Florida senator Marco Rubio and former Florida governor Jeb Bush in 2016, but Trump still held a lead in the Florida GOP primary polls over both men from August 2015 until March 2016. If DeSantis is going to win in 2024, he’ll need an early victory to build momentum and a lot more than just his home state down the road, but the latest poll from Florida is another example of how early state-level polling is looking different this time around.