Flipping New Jersey’s governor’s mansion red will be a challenge.
The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and its affiliated political action committees will commit $2 million in canvassing and paid advertising efforts to help Republicans win off-cycle elections in New Jersey and Virginia this cycle, National Review has learned. The early get-out-the-vote spending commitment — which will include direct mail, digital ads, and texting — is part of an initiative by the GOP spending group to help Republicans win governorships and other down-ballot races in each blue-leaning state this fall.
“In 2023, the RSLC made a strategic investment in a comprehensive early and absentee vote program in both Virginia and New Jersey that resulted in significant victories for down-ballot Republicans in 2020 Biden-won districts and record-breaking turnout in others,” RSLC President Edith Jorge-Tuñón said in a statement to NR.
Voters head to the polls on Tuesday in New Jersey, where they will pick their general election candidates for governor to succeed Democratic Governor Phil Murphy. Donald Trump–endorsed Republican and third-time gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli and Democratic Representative Mikie Sherill are widely considered the frontrunners in their respective primaries.
New Jersey’s gubernatorial race is already incredibly expensive: Candidate and independent expenditure group spending in the Republican and Democratic primaries has exceeded $122 million, according to a new review released by the New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission.
Flipping New Jersey’s governor’s mansion red will be a challenge. Republicans are confident Ciattarelli is a strong candidate to win the open seat after he lost to Murphy in 2021 by three points — a close race many election analysts attribute to voter frustration with the pandemic and Joe Biden’s unpopular presidency.
But midterm elections traditionally hurt the party in power. And while Trump lost New Jersey in 2024 by about six points — a much stronger performance than his 15.8 point loss against Joe Biden in 2020 — closing that gap on the gubernatorial level won’t be easy for any GOP statewide candidate, especially now that Republicans currently control the White House.
Republicans in Virginia will need all the help they can get, too. The Old Dominion is the only state in the union that bars its chief executives from serving consecutive terms, meaning popular Republican governor Glenn Youngkin cannot run for reelection in 2025. Republican gubernatorial nominee Winsome Earle-Sears, the current lieutenant governor, is closely aligned with Youngkin but is currently trailing Democratic former representative Abigail Spanberger in most public polls.
The Democratic Governors Association (DGA) already pledged $5 million to help Spanberger flip the governor’s mansion to Democratic control, and outside liberal groups are expected to spend heavily on her behalf as well.