It’s a sad commentary on the state of American politics that we are approaching the third consecutive presidential election in which so-called “double haters” constitute a coveted swing-voting demographic. Once again, the two major parties have created a meaningful, persuadable constituency composed of sound-minded voters who detest the choice they are being made to make.
In 2016, roughly one-fifth of the electorate turned out to vote despite their contempt for both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. In the end, those voters broke for Trump, handing him the presidency. That dynamic receded in 2020. Quite unlike Hillary Clinton in 2016, Joe Biden’s negatives in the last general-election cycle did not approach Trump’s. Although it was not the majority-maker it was in 2016 (only 3 percent disliked both Trump and Biden), Trump again managed to win the “double hater” demo. In 2024, however, the disgusted vote may make the difference it didn’t in 2020.
“Among the 19 percent of voters who said they disapproved of both likely nominees,” the New York Times reported this weekend following the release of the latest Times/Sienna poll, “Mr. Biden actually led Mr. Trump, 45 percent to 33 percent.” It is unusual for Trump to find himself on the wrong end of voters who express distaste for both sides of the “binary choice” to which partisan supporters of either party insist general elections boil down. And because 2024 will not be a “binary choice,” the hater vote may not be as determinative as it has been in the past.
In their analysis of the political landscape, pollsters Celinda Lake and Christine Matthews observe that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. draws the most support from “double haters.” They note, however, that this is likely a default choice. Kennedy is neither well known nor well defined, and the number of state-level ballots for which Kennedy can qualify remains an open question. Both his level of support and whether that support can express itself in Kennedy’s vote share are subject to too many variables to game out with eight months left before the election. That said, political analysts assume the lion’s share of the “double haters” vote will break for one of the major party nominees. Right now, that candidate is Biden. A lot of good that has done him so far.
Even among Americans who view the president favorably, Joe Biden’s voters are profoundly unenthused by the prospect of voting for him again in November. According to the Times/Sienna survey, just 28 percent of Democrats describe themselves as “enthusiastic” in their support for Biden. Another 43 percent say they’re merely “satisfied” with the Democratic candidate. Indeed, more Democrats are enthused by the prospect of Donald Trump’s renomination to the presidency (30 percent) than Biden, which tells you more about whom these voters intend to vote against with gusto than whom they plan to vote for.
Among those who say they voted for Biden in 2020, only one-quarter are jazzed about doing so again. In fact, Biden retains the support of just 83 percent of those who say they voted for him in the last election, whereas Trump can count on 97 percent of his 2020 vote this time around. But that’s not all buoying Trump’s performance in this survey.
Trump enjoys the backing of nearly half of voters who say they did not turn out at all in 2020. He erases the gender gap that conventionally cuts against him, splitting female voters with Biden at 46 percent apiece. Trump is winning the backing of more than four in ten voters under the age of 29. He’s beating Biden among Hispanics, winning over one in five black voters, and holds Biden to a draw among independents. This performance contributes to his overall five-point lead over Biden among registered voters (48 to 43 percent). Given the degree to which these results represent a significant improvement in Trump’s performance among these demographics in 2020, we can assume they include a lot of defections from the Democratic camp. These voters don’t even have to pull the lever for Trump in the numbers the Times/Sienna survey forecasts to spell doom for Biden’s candidacy. They just have to remain as indifferent toward him in November as they are today.
When the Times applies a screen to weed out registered voters who are unlikely to show up at the polls in November, the numbers shift marginally in Biden’s favor but not enough to alter the poll’s overall verdict: Biden is headed for defeat if these numbers don’t change.