Consider me a skeptic.

I understand the dynamic that Dan McLaughlin and Jeff Blehar are describing as they analyze Kamala Harris’s prospects in the 2026 California gubernatorial race. The former vice president has huge name recognition. She’s won statewide in California. She’ll probably raise a ton of money. And just six weeks ago, she was one Joe Biden heartbeat away from becoming president of the United States. Of course she’d be the favorite if she decides to run for governor of the Golden State.

Dan writes:

With Gavin Newsom term-limited, there may not be another Democrat with the stature and fundraising prowess to beat Harris in California’s jungle primary system — for example, Katie Porter looks diminished after her loss to Adam Schiff, and Karen Bass isn’t exactly in great shape to angle for a promotion.

And yet . . . people think Kamala Harris is a loser. Worse, people think she’s dim and somewhat of an embarrassment.

And Kamala Harris lost to the Republican that Democrats hate most. Don’t get me wrong — I don’t expect a Republican governor in California come January 2027. But could a relatively unknown, ambitious Democrat knock Harris off? Well, why not?

The last time Kamala Harris was a candidate in a competitive race in California in which other Democrats were trying to beat her out was way back in 2016.

It’s true that, back then, Harris cleared the field and romped to a decisive victory in the race to replace retiring Senator Barbara Boxer. That was indeed a demonstration of political strength.

But, this time around and ten years on, it’s not like Kamala Harris is a young dynamic senator running for governor to set up a future White House bid. She’s already been weighed in the balance and found wanting. She’s already been through the crucible fires of national politics and came out a diminished figure.

I agree with Dan and Jeff that California Democrats are very unlikely to elect a Republican during the midterm election of Trump’s second stint in the White House. But why would they elect someone who lost to Trump? Someone who will spend the campaign and the first two years of her term being ridiculed by the White House and constantly reminded of the fact that she lost every swing state to Trump? How will she defend her repeatedly stated position that Joe Biden was compos mentis for the final two years of his presidential term?

And who exactly owes Kamala Harris his or her loyalty? Who thinks Kamala Harris has a future? Who’s going to knock on the doors and man the phone banks?

Perhaps equally important: Who in California thinks that Kamala Harris will bring efficient, well-run government to that perpetually dysfunctional state?

I don’t know who the next governor of California will be. I don’t know whether a centrist Democrat or a true lefty has the widest room to run.

But Kamala Harris is a weak candidate. She may raise a boatload of money, and maybe that’s enough. But someone will challenge her. And that ambitious Left Coast Democrat will have a chance.