Former biotech CEO and 2024 GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy has gobbled up lots of media attention in recent weeks ahead of his long-anticipated 2026 run for Ohio governor, which he is expected to announce in the coming days after he parted ways last month with the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
He’s enjoyed front-runner status in the media before formally launching his campaign for term-limited Republican Governor Mike DeWine’s seat, with a pro-Ramaswamy group releasing a poll last month that showed the former presidential candidate winning the support of a majority of Republican primary voters and leading his closest competitor, Attorney General Dave Yost, by 34 points. (In that poll, Yost had the support of 18 percent of GOP primary voters, with 27 percent of voters remaining undecided and two other prospective candidates — state Treasurer Robert Sprague (2 percent) and 2022 lieutenant governor candidate Jeremiah Workman (1 percent) — hardly registering in the survey.)
But a new polling memo from Yost’s gubernatorial campaign team argues that Ramaswamy’s front-runner status is softer than many think and that Trump’s endorsement will be a determinative factor in the primary. A new survey of 602 likely Republican primary voters conducted in early February by the pro-Yost polling firm National Public Affairs (NPA) shows that on an uninformed ballot, Ramaswamy leads 46 percent of likely GOP voters to Yost’s 18 percent, with 34 percent undecided and Sprague and Workman at 1 percent each.
But according to the same memo, Yost’s support grows to 30 percent on an informed ballot — when survey respondents are provided more background information on the candidates — while Ramaswamy’s falls to 31 percent, with 36 percent remaining undecided (and the two other Republicans hardly registering). The memo suggests Yost’s lead grows even more when an informed ballot is paired with President Donald Trump’s endorsement, with Yost leading Ramaswamy by 20 points in that hypothetical scenario.
“While Yost enjoys broad support across demographic groups, the Attorney General overperforms among ‘traditional conservative Republicans’ and Evangelical Protestants — two key components of the Republican primary base in Ohio,” NPA partner Justin Clark wrote in a February 18 polling memo shared with National Review. “It should not come as a surprise that Ramaswamy has high name ID having run on the national stage against President Trump and having worked on the transition team before abandoning the Trump administration to fulfill his own political ambitions.”
“Our findings indicate that this early advantage is a ‘sugar high’ driven by a pre inauguration media saturation that led to high name ID and perceived association with President Trump,” the memo continues, and “the survey is clear that voters align closest to the candidate that receives the backing of President Trump . . . whoever that candidate is.”
It’s of course very early in the race, and the president has yet to pick a favorite in the primary. Yost is well-known in the state: A former two-term state auditor first elected as Ohio’s attorney general 2018, he has won four consecutive statewide elections since 2010.
But Ramaswamy has many early advantages, including relationships in Trump world, a team of political advisers with years of experience working in Vice President JD Vance’s orbit, millions in personal funds he can use to finance a campaign, and a major social media following to spread his message, including more than 3.5 million followers on X.
What’s more, two Ohio Republicans long considered prospective gubernatorial candidates have already endorsed Ramaswamy and found different statewide lanes: two-term Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who is running for state auditor; and state Treasurer Robert Sprague, who is seeking LaRose’s current seat.
Ohio has had quite the political reshuffling in recent years, with freshman Republican senator Bernie Moreno recently ousting longtime senator Sherrod Brown in November and DeWine then tapping Lieutenant Governor Jon Husted two months later to fill Vice President JD Vance’s U.S. Senate seat. Ohio will hold a special election for the final two years of Vance’s six-year term in 2026.