The Democratic ticket in November 2024 is extremely likely to be the then-almost 82-year-old Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. There is always a chance that for some reason, Biden cannot finish his term and Harris will be atop the ticket. In that scenario, it’s anyone’s guess who Harris would select as her running mate.
The Republican ticket in November 2024 is extremely likely to be either Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis. Yes, there are other Republicans running and it is early, but one of those other figures would have to mount an amazing climb to win the nomination in the coming year.
Donald Trump reportedly wants a female running mate if he wins the GOP nomination, and reportedly sees unsuccessful 2022 Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake as a model or strong option.
Needless to say, plenty of Americans would cringe at the options of Biden-Harris and Trump-Lake. Meanwhile, the organization No Labels aims to get on the ballot in all fifty states, and is expected to have at least $70 million to fund a major independent bid for the presidency.
And West Virginia senator Joe Manchin keeps refusing to rule out a presidential bid. He faces challenging odds in his Senate reelection bid. Earlier this year, Manchin and GOP senator Susan Collins of Maine headlined a No Labels event. (Obvious joke: How should you describe a No Labels event?)
In fact, Manchin’s comments seem designed to fan the flames of talk he’ll run on the No Labels ticket.
Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.), who has not declared whether he will run for reelection next year, and former Maryland governor Larry Hogan (R) are also supporters of the effort, and both said they have not ruled out participating in a No Labels presidential ticket, if it happens.
“If enough Americans believe there is an option and the option is a threat to the extreme left and extreme right, it will be the greatest contribution to democracy, I believe,” Manchin said in an interview. When asked whether he would participate in a No Labels ticket, he said, “I don’t rule myself in and I don’t rule myself out.”
Fun fact: In a Biden-Trump-Manchin race, the West Virginia senator would be the youngest candidate. Biden turns 81 in November, Trump turns 77 next month, and Manchin turns 76 in August.
It is not difficult to see a scenario where Manchin concludes an independent presidential bid will be much more exciting and fun than a tough Senate reelection bid. And Manchin would likely pick some center-right Republican as his running mate, Collins or Hogan or perhaps Alaska senator Lisa Murkowski. (Manchin endorsed her last year, and she endorsed him.)
That would set up a three-way race between Biden-Harris, Trump-Lake, and Manchin-Collins/Hogan/Murkowski. No wonder Democrats are worried about No Labels. The entire Biden strategy is based upon him being the only realistic option against Trump for the roughly 51 percent of Americans who disapprove of the former president. You can find plenty of Democrats who want an option besides Biden, and plenty of Republicans who want an option besides Trump. Whether that adds up to enough votes to win a state in a three-way race remains to be seen.