Shutting down the government would likely be a counterproductive move for Democrats, in both the short term and the long term.
According to Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley and New Jersey Senator Andy Kim, to protest what they see as unconstitutional moves that are throwing federal government workers out of their jobs, congressional Democrats may . . . (checks notes) . . . force a government shutdown.
Kim was on Meet the Press this weekend:
HOST KRISTEN WELKER: So just to be clear, Senator, you are open to voting yes to shut down the government to make this point.
SEN. ANDY KIM: This is on them. This is about whether or not they can get the votes. They are the majority. And if they cannot govern then, you know, that’s for the American people to see. But I’ve worked in government. I’ve worked through multiple government shutdowns. I would be the last person to want to get to that stage. But we are at a point where we are basically on the cusp of a constitutional crisis seeing this administration taking steps that are so clearly illegal. And until we see a change in that behavior we should not allow and condone that, nor should we assist in that.
The U.S. government has funding to operate until March 14. (Beware the Ides of March.)
Shutting down the government would likely be a counterproductive move for Democrats, in both the short term and the long term.
The funding bill would not be done through reconciliation, so in theory, Senate Democrats could filibuster the funding bill that would keep the government open. But Senate Democrats filibustering a bill to keep the government open would make it really hard for Chuck Schumer to argue that the shutdown was Republicans’ fault.
As noted, the Republican majority in the House is particularly small, so a combination of unified Democratic opposition and a handful of GOP defectors could block a funding bill.
As of this writing, because of a judge’s order, 2,200 USAID workers are still at work, even though the sign for the agency is now gone and the plan is to incorporate worthwhile USAID programs into the U.S. State Department. To protest this move, Democrats would send a whole lot of federal workers home, without pay. (Keep in mind, under a 2019 law, all federal employees must get fully paid for the time they worked or would have worked during a government shutdown. Taxpayers do not save money during government shutdowns!)
Based on the last threatened shutdown (there was a shutdown, but it only lasted twelve hours) at the Department of Defense, 200,000 civilian employees would work without getting paid until the shutdown ends, and 439,000 civilian employees would be furloughed — told to go home until further notice. Active-duty service members are required to continue reporting for duty even if they do not receive a paycheck. At the Department of Homeland Security, roughly 185,000 federal employees will work without pay, and 31,000 will be furloughed. The Smithsonian gets closed, and national parks, monuments, and other sites would be closed to the public.
In the short term, Democrats hate seeing the government shut down a lot more than Donald Trump and Republicans do, so the pressure on Democrats to reach a deal would likely increase more quickly. Forcing a shutdown could be a path to an embarrassing capitulation down the road.
Yes, it would take only a handful of House Republicans to make it impossible for Mike Johnson to pass a bill with just GOP votes. But it would take only a slightly larger handful of House Democrats to pass a funding bill to end the government shutdown.
In the longer term, Democrats would block the funding bill and their eloquent and persuasive leaders, Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, would attempt to convince the public that it’s all the Republicans’ fault for being intransigent. Even with the media carrying Democrats’ water in the fight, that’s a tall order. Also keep in mind that the public usually blames both parties for a shutdown, even if Republicans have gotten more blame in the past, and the effect on public opinion is short-lived.
As for the debt ceiling, that’s even more a case of taking a hostage that you’re not willing to shoot.
As noted last week, grassroots Democrats are demanding that their congressional leaders fight, without much sense of how limited their options are in the minority. As one senior congressional aide lamented to CNN: “There’s just not a lot of good options for Democrats.”