Earlier this summer, a Chinese diplomat basically let the cat out of the bag in a meeting with Kaja Kallas. According to the South China Post:

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the European Union’s top diplomat on Wednesday that Beijing cannot afford a Russian loss in Ukraine because it fears the United States would then shift its whole focus to Beijing, according to several people familiar with the exchange.

There have always been two theories on the interaction of the European and Pacific theaters. One side has argued that willpower is what matters. Show the Chinese that the Western-led world order will never allow revisionists to succeed, and that will deter them with regard to Taiwan. Another side has argued that what matters is attention, patience, and stockpiles. That willpower can be depleted in one conflict rather than renewed by it.

China seems to agree with the second theory and wants the U.S. to invest in Ukraine, not the Pacific. Meanwhile China has struck lucrative weapons and energy deals with Russia. And Chinese electronics power Ukrainian drones. China’s determination to profit and expand its weapons business in this conflict probably inspired Donald Trump’s firm ultimatum to European powers: If you want Ukraine to have weapons, buy them from us and give them where you think they’re needed.