For years, many analysts have wondered whether Israel has the technical capabilities required to neutralize the Iranian nuclear program.
For many years, it’s been an open question whether Israel would have the capability — on its own, without the help or assistance of the United States — to neutralize the Iranian nuclear program.
The questions were technical in nature: Does Israel possess the kind of advanced “bunker busting” munitions designed to penetrate prepared and hardened facilities built precisely to protect themselves from air-delivered munitions? Does Israel possess the logistical capabilities, including aerial refueling assets, to facilitate long-range strikes on Iran (it’s just under 1,000 miles from Jerusalem to Tehran)?
The latter question has, for all intents and purposes, been answered over the last two years, as Israel has repeatedly conducted strikes on the Iranian capital and on military bases around the country.
The question of munitions is still, in my view, unanswered definitively, because we yet don’t know that Israel has achieved decisive effects on its targets. We will learn more in the coming days and weeks. We should remember that air campaigns, even very intensive ones, do not always achieve their desired results.
But we know that Israel has obtained significant quantities of bunker-busting JDAMs.
Last October, in the U.S. Naval Institute’s Proceedings magazine, Commander Graham Scarbro, a U.S. Navy aviator, took a look at the eyebrow-raising fact that Israel dropped GBU-31(v)3 “bunker-buster” JDAMs in the strike that killed former Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Scarbro wrote, “The GBU-31(v)3 is a “bunker-buster” weapon, which uses a specially built BLU-109 bomb body of the 2,000-lb class, and unique fuse settings to allow the bomb to penetrate heavily fortified structures such as multi-story buildings, caves, and bunkers.”
Two factors in the Israeli strike stand out. The first is quantity. According to a U.S. Air Force Central Command report on the 2003 invasion of Iraq, U.S. air forces expended a total of 24 GBU-24 and GBU-28 (4,000-lb) bunker busters in the entire conflict against the Iraqi military. [In the strike against Nasrallah], Israel dropped up to three times as many weapons in one night. Considering the targets, however, helps explain the apparent overkill.
To be clear, these types of JDAMs are not the very best “bunker busters” on planet Earth. There are more advanced varieties. And it’s hard to say whether Israel has acquired or independently developed these types.
It’s important to understand that the Iranian nuclear enrichment facility at Fordow, which is buried very deep underground and well protected, will likely require the world’s best bunker-busters to destroy it.
After the breathtaking operations against Hezbollah and Iran since October 7, 2023, no one should underestimate our Israeli friends. That of course is not the same thing as saying that the Israelis have all the military capabilities that the United States has. They don’t.
But the very fact that Israel made this move, and without our help — attacking “dozens of targets,” according to CNN reports, around Iran in what Israeli officials are saying will not be “a one-day attack” — leads me to think that the Israeli government came to the conclusion that they believed they simply had to make this move. They likely were in possession of credible intelligence that Iran was attempting to break out toward an operational nuclear weapon that would have been an existential threat to Jerusalem. It’s possible that Israel is launching these strikes despite the fact that the Israelis don’t have the munitions they’d want or need because they feel like they simply must.
We will now see how this very dangerous situation develops. We will find out whether the ever-underestimated Jewish state has the will and know-how to finish the job.