Another crushing defeat at the hands of Donald Trump has most Democrats reflecting on “why?” instead of contemplating “what now?” The electoral limits of a purely anti-Trump campaign have been exhausted, and Democrats ought to begin laying the groundwork for a new political identity if they wish to remain competitive on the national stage moving forward. Their path only gets harder. Much harder.

According to the American Redistricting Project’s 2030 census projections, Republican-leaning states are set to gain 13 Electoral College votes while Democratic states are slated to lose twelve (setting Pennsylvania, −1, aside as a truly purple one). Places like Texas (+4) and Florida (+3) are experiencing population surges while California (−4), New York (-3), and Illinois (−2) are enduring a costly exodus.

Utah, Idaho, Tennessee, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina each seem poised to add one Electoral College vote as Rhode Island, Washington, and Minnesota find themselves on the flip side. Five of the six fastest-growing states vote reliably Republican, and, excluding Pennsylvania once again, five of the seven states whose populations are in sharpest decline remain dependably Democratic. Conservative states have long courted families, touting lower taxes, safer streets, and, yes, less wokeness. It seems to be paying off.

Families aren’t just more likely to pack up for red states, either. The ten states that report the highest fertility rates are all bright red, according to data from the Institute for Family Studies. The ten states with the lowest fertility rates are . . . drumroll . . . all liberal. The mobility trends and natality figures are daunting enough for Democrats, but, paired with historic minority turnout for Trump on Tuesday, the cracks in the once-ascendant liberal coalition seem to be endangering its entire foundation.