A new CNN poll has grim news for Donald Trump on the public’s view of the signature issue at the heart of his reputation and comeback: the economy. By a margin of 56 percent to 44 percent, poll respondents disapprove of his handling of the economy — worse than at any time in his first term, even as he draws high marks on immigration. Voters are more closely divided on his budget-cutting efforts, and half of all voters still see him as bringing needed change. Looking at the details of the poll, Trump’s handling of the economy is viewed unfavorably by 63 percent of independents, 12 percent of Republicans, 12 percent of 2024 Trump voters, 48 percent of white voters, 67 percent of non-white voters, and majorities of men, women, college graduates, non-college graduates, and every age bracket, as well as 11 percent of people who approve of his job performance overall.

Polling should always be taken with appropriate cautions. Pollsters did a pretty good job in 2024, but they still underestimated Trump and Republicans, and Trump also once again managed to corral a fair number of votes from people who didn’t have favorable opinions of him. Moreover, this CNN poll has been consistently less favorable to Trump than other polls: it has had him with at least a 52 percent disapproval rating since the start of his current term, and 54 percent in this poll, compared with the RealClearPolitics average, which still has Trump slightly above water at 48.3 percent approval and 48.1 percent disapproval. So, we are definitely on firm ground assuming that Trump is in better shape by a few points than what this poll shows.

But the overall trend should nonetheless alarm Republicans and the Trump White House. In the RCP average, a majority (50.3 percent) now disapproves of Trump on the economy, with only 44 percent approving. He’s under water in seven of the eight polls in the average. Poll after poll shows that a slice of voters who are still with Trump are unhappy with the direction of his economic policy. It’s not hard to picture some of those voters drifting away if erratic tariff threats and stock market gyrations give way to more widespread economic pain.

For those of us who think in terms of political principle and steady leadership, Trump’s capacity for turning on a dime can be immensely frustrating, destabilizing, and sometimes seemingly irrational. But the advantage it has sometimes given him is the salesman’s ability to self-correct to a more popular stance when he thinks the voters aren’t buying what he’s selling. There’s still time to change course, but it would be a supreme irony if the one issue on which Trump seems to have genuine convictions — tariffs and trade wars — proves to be his undoing.