The West must make clear that Putin cannot win.

V ladimir Putin believed his unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 would be victorious in less than two weeks. His spymasters promised him that while pocketing most of the billions the Kremlin had shelled out to buy off Ukraine’s leaders. This coming February, the war will enter its fourth year.

Putin’s army has now suffered more than 1 million casualties and has lost at least 4,000 battle tanks, which is more than it started the war with. The Russian navy has abandoned the Black Sea, losing its flagship, the Moskva, and 24 other warships to Ukrainian sea drones.

The Russian economy is in deep trouble, with inflation and interest rates sky-high and record budget deficits that will grow worse as oil and gas exports continue to decline. Ukrainian strikes have severely damaged at least one-third of Russia’s energy facilities. Retail gas prices are up 50 percent nationwide and 100 percent in some oblasts (regions), with long lines for fuel everywhere. Entire industries such as mining, tourism, banking, and aviation are failing. This year, more than 40 percent of the government budget will go toward the war. When Russia’s National Wealth Fund runs out of liquid assets early next year, the country will have no way to finance the war. Russia simply cannot sustain this rate of military spending or the average loss of 1,000 soldiers daily.

Putin knows this. He understands he has six to twelve months to win a “victory” before his financial and human resources run out. Unless he changes the trajectory of the war, he will soon be responsible for the largest military defeat in Russia’s history. A defeat of that magnitude would end his regime. To prevent that, he will take great risks. In short, we must beware the wounded and cornered Russian bear.

We already see a riskier Russian strategy on the battlefield and in its hybrid warfare against NATO. Take Russia’s rapidly increasing violations of NATO airspace. What was a rarity early in the war has become dozens of incursions each month. Putin is effectively warning smaller NATO allies how vulnerable they are if they remain in the fight. His shadow fleet has grown from 200 vessels in 2022 to more than 1,000 today and is used not only for illegal oil exports but to spy on NATO facilities, launch drones, and cut undersea cables linking Western allies. Russia is also suspected of being behind mysterious bombings of European military factories and attempted assassinations of corporate leaders. Vlad is looking to scare off Ukraine’s NATO allies, despite the growing risk of a NATO response. This trend will only escalate.

The West must now be ready for anything. Even Russia’s use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine is possible. Putin and his officials have repeatedly warned of this. Just last November, the Kremlin revised its nuclear doctrine to permit a “first strike” capacity.

So how can the West deal with a cornered Russian bear? Running away is not an option. If Putin succeeds in taking Ukraine, then Moldova, Georgia, or even Poland could be next. Putin has alluded to this, and we must take him at his word. And what about Xi Jinping in China? Taiwan and East Asia would be far less secure if Russia wins.

The West must make clear that Russia will lose badly if it attacks Ukraine with nuclear weapons or NATO in any way. Being clear up front — even shooting down a Russian fighter over NATO territory — would send a strong signal. President Trump’s decision last week to share detailed targeting information with Ukraine will help. Ukraine will produce more than 4 million drones this year, up from 2 million in 2024, and that number is expected to double again in 2026. These mass-produced drones are devastatingly effective against Russia’s old-school tactics. Unless he changes the narrative, Russia will continue to lose vast numbers of troops for little territorial gain, fueling Putin’s paranoia.

That is why we must give Russia a face-saving off-ramp, like providing a clear escape path for a wounded bear. Let Putin go into exile in China with his “forever friend” Xi. Putin is elderly, not in good health, and has many enemies. He will not last long in “retirement.”

Finally, we must ensure that Putin and the Russian people understand that the West can and will outlast them. Bears and people must eat; no country can remain indefinitely at war. The Russian economy is failing. Many Russians now recognize Putin’s “special military operation” as a colossal mistake. Just last week, two well-known pro-Kremlin bloggers publicly complained that Russia is losing the war. Neither was arrested or disappeared. You can be sure that other elites are saying the same thing in private.

Putin will no longer “have the cards” for victory. He can either accept a face-saving retreat or exile or face the worst defeat in Russian history. No matter what, we must face down the wounded and cornered Russian bear. It will not be easy, but there is no other option.