Joe Biden’s allies are quick to note (perhaps prematurely so) that the president’s standing in national polls has recently begun to improve. But elections are conducted in the states. And, according to the Wall Street Journal’s latest survey of voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Biden’s campaign has a lot of work to do in the swing states.

That poll’s toplines are clear. In a two-way race, Trump beats Biden in all but Wisconsin, where the candidates are tied at 46 percent apiece. In North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada, Trump’s lead meets or exceeds the poll’s margin of error. In the multi-candidate pileup scenarios WSJ’s pollsters tested, Trump’s lead declines some (save for North Carolina). But only in Wisconsin is that decline sufficient to hand Biden a victory.

Michael Bocian, the Democratic pollster who worked alongside the Trump-affiliated Tony Fabrizio to conduct this survey, warns that voters don’t seem “excited” by the third-party options, even assuming they manage to qualify for state-level ballot access. “They are saying, ‘I’m toying with some other options because I don’t like the options I’ve been given,’” Bocian explained. Expect most of these voters to “come home” to one party or the other or to simply stay home.

If these results are indicative of how voters will feel about the presidential race come autumn, Trump will enjoy a variety of pathways to victory. But the data in this poll get more interesting the deeper into the crosstabs you go.

When voters survey the national landscape, they don’t like what they see. They are discouraged by the state of the economy, the border crisis, and Joe Biden’s handling of foreign affairs. They deeply disapprove of the job he’s done in office, and they look back fondly on Trump’s tenure in office. But their outlook improves when those voters are asked to narrow their focus.

For example, voters in the swing states rate the national economy “not so good” or “poor” by roughly 30 points, give or take. But those same voters are far more satisfied with the economy in their respective states, even though those same voters believe their local economies have “gotten worse” over the last two years. That poll found that only Michiganders believe their state’s overall economy is in poor health.

Likewise, while swing state voters believe crime, inflation, and the average person’s “ability to get ahead” has declined in their parts of the country over the last 12 months, they’re more conflicted about their “personal financial situation.” Across the six swing states, 46 percent of respondents said their individual financial security was improving. Forty-nine percent said the opposite. With the exceptions of Pennsylvania and Michigan, voters are split on the status of their finances. That picture is complicated somewhat by the fact that a significant majority in all states except Wisconsin believe their investments and retirement savings have underperformed over the last year. But in a poll with almost no bright spots for Biden, voters’ personal financial outlook stands out as one of the few.

That may be cold comfort for this White House. Even if the voting public is more satisfied with their personal circumstances than everyone else’s, they give Biden no credit for their relative satisfaction. These results suggest that Donald Trump benefits from emphasizing national environmental conditions. He should, therefore, devote himself to nationalizing the election, drawing voters focus to a 30,000-foot view of the American political landscape. Trump will have an easier time at that than Biden will in his effort to convince voters to narrow their focus. And time is running out.

It’s wise to wait for the electorate to “tune in” to the electoral cycle, usually sometime in the late summer, before investing too much confidence in the polls. But the president has been behind the eight ball for a long time. Eventually, voters’ negative impressions of Biden and his record will harden into something fast that no amount of slick advertising can overcome.