All autumn long, political pundits including myself have discussed seven key swing states in the presidential election — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

For a long while, I argued that North Carolina didn’t belong on the list, particularly when Biden was the nominee, but the polling in that state grew tighter, and as noted below, Trump spent parts of Saturday, Sunday, and Monday there. But as we approach Election Day, it feels like Arizona is the state that is slowly inching away from “toss up” category and looking, at minimum, to “lean Trump.”

In the early vote, registered Republicans who have voted outnumber registered Democrats, 908,233 to 725,552. Yes, there’s always the chance that the good numbers for the GOP in the early vote represent “cannibalizing” the Election Day turnout, but you would rather be ahead by roughly 182,000 early votes than behind by 182,000 votes.

Over at 538, you’ve got to go back to a CNN poll completed October 26 to find a survey that has Harris ahead in Arizona. Trump has led by one to seven percentage points in the last twelve surveys. In that site’s average, Trump now leads 49.1 percent to 46.5 percent, which may not sound like much, but by the standards of swing states this cycle, it’s a landslide.

Over at RealClearPolitics, Trump has led 18 of the last 23 polls in Arizona, and in the RCP average, Trump leads, 48.9 percent to 46.3 percent. Again, if Harris was on pace to win, you figure the polls would show her winning more frequently and more recently.

Harris campaigned in the state on Halloween, and Tim Walz appeared in Tucson on Saturday, so it’s not like the Harris campaign has completely given up there. But it appears to no longer be quite as high a priority on the campaign’s last day. Harris is spending all day in Pennsylvania with four events, and Walz will hold events in Wisconsin, in La Crosse, Stevens Point, and Milwaukee, before heading to Detroit.

Mind you, this is only discussing the presidential race. While Kari Lake’s numbers have gotten a little better in the state’s U.S. Senate race, Ruben Gallego is still a heavy favorite.