Michael: The question I always look at first in this survey is the one that lets respondents say whether they think abortion should be legal “in all circumstances,” “in most circumstances,” “only in a few circumstances,” or “illegal in all circumstances.” Historically, the two relatively anti-abortion options have outperformed the two relatively pro-abortion ones. In May 2020, for example, there was a 55–43 percent split along those lines.

That changed in recent years in what looks like a backlash to Dobbs. In May 2022, right after the leak of the ruling, the two pro-abortion options hit a combined record high of 53 percent and the pro-life ones a record low of 45 percent. The latest numbers suggest a fading of that backlash: We’re down to a 49–48 percent split in favor of the pro-abortion options. I would not be surprised if next year those numbers went back even further toward the historical pattern.

In every year, the number of people who choose one of the relatively anti-abortion options is greater than the number of people who describe themselves as pro-life. Perhaps some people who believe that abortion should be permitted in a few circumstances think that this view places them in the pro-choice camp; or perhaps some people who oppose most abortions also have negative associations with the pro-life movement.