As Jim noted, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget released an analysis claiming that “Tariffs Are Generating Meaningful New Revenue.” Maybe they are — but CRFB doesn’t really show it. That’s because of the crucial caveat: “Estimates also exclude macroeconomic effects, which could reduce the net (real) deficit reduction from tariffs to the extent they lead to slower growth and higher inflation.”

Nobody has ever doubted that increasing tariffs, if the increase is not to a prohibitive level, would bring in extra tariff revenues. But if the tariffs reduce economic growth, lost income and lost corporate tax revenue have to be subtracted from those extra tariff revenues. It’s entirely conceivable that the net effect on revenues is marginal or even negative.

CRFB does some good work, but I think it has glossed over this point — especially in the headline it used.