The Congressional Budget Office projects that the bill President Trump is signing today will throw 11.8 million people off Medicaid. I don’t believe it, and neither should you. I wrote about it in the Washington Post today.

We should keep in mind, first, that the CBO has a poor track record in modeling the effects of health care legislation. In 2017, the CBO helped sink a Republican plan to replace Obamacare by noting that its repeal of the mandate for individuals to buy health coverage would take 16 million people off the insurance rolls. Within two years, it had revised that estimate down to 8 million. By 2020, the New York Times was reporting that its effective repeal — President Donald Trump’s tax cuts reduced the penalty for going uninsured to zero dollars — “didn’t really matter.” . . .