Judge is not just better but significantly better than Raleigh in every major offensive category other than home runs and RBIs.
To our non-baseball-fan readers out there, forgive me. But I need to go off on a bit of a rant. There is a raging debate in the baseball world over whether Cal Raleigh or Aaron Judge should be the American League MVP. Those in favor of crowning Raleigh argue that, because he is a catcher who hit 60 home runs and the Mariners won the division for the first time in ages, he deserves it. In reality, Judge is the MVP once again — and it isn’t even a particularly close race.
My argument in favor of Judge is a simple one: Judge is not just better but significantly better than Raleigh in every major offensive category other than home runs and RBIs. The numbers are as follows:
Batting average: Judge .331 vs. Raleigh .247
Hits: Judge 179 vs. Raleigh 147
Walks: Judge 124 vs. Raleigh 97
Runs scored: Judge 137 vs Raleigh 110
On base percentage: Judge .457 vs. Raleigh .359
Slugging percentage: Judge .688 vs. Raleigh .589
OPS: Judge 1.144 vs. Raleigh .947
It strains credulity to believe that 7 more homers and 11 more RBIs are more valuable than a difference of 80 points in batting average and 200 points of OPS.
It’s also perplexing that, in September, the MVP buzz surrounding Raleigh seemed to grow even though during this month Judge hit the same number of homers (10) and had an OPS of 1.292 (about 260 points higher than Raleigh).
When it comes to a leading modern metric, wins above replacement, Judge beats Raleigh on Baseball Reference, 9.7 to 7.3. Now, some complain that this doesn’t take into account the grueling work that Raleigh does as a catcher, which also involves managing the game plan with pitchers (which is notable, though it’s also notable that Raleigh was designated hitter for 38 games). Even so, looking at Fangraphs, where the measure of WAR gives heavy weight to catching, Judge still comes out comfortably ahead, 10.1 to 9.1.
Without any actual data to make the case for Raleigh, analysts have resorted to completely ridiculous arguments in his favor.
On MLB network, Mark DeRosa made the absurd argument that Raleigh’s .247 batting average (which would be the lowest ever by a non-pitcher MVP) was actually a good thing because “I don’t want him hitting .290 and clogging up the bases.” Huh? So the fact that he’s slow isn’t counted as part of the calculation as to how valuable it is, and it becomes good that he strikes out a ton? The fact that Judge got on base a lot more and is a good base runner and scored 27 more runs than Raleigh this year is a knock against him?
(As a side note, it’s worth recalling that in 2017, Aaron Judge’s rookie year, he beat Jose Altuve in multiple categories, and had 28 more home runs, but Altuve won the MVP, and one of the reasons given was that Altuve had a .346 batting average to Judge’s .284.)
Another argument that’s being floated is that Raleigh improved more year over year. So what? This isn’t a “most improved player” award. Judge had one of the greatest offensive seasons ever last year and, but for missing some time recovering from an injury, had a roughly comparable season this year. He was also just the third player in MLB history to win a batting title and also hit at least 50 home runs. The last time it was done was Mickey Mantle’s triple crown season in 1956 — when he hit 52 home runs. (Judge finished with 53 this year.) And keep in mind that Judge is doing this at a time when batting average is de-emphasized and there were only 6 other players who hit the milestone in all of the majors (and those players only averaged 20 home runs). Why should Judge’s consistent excellence, and ability to hit for both average and power, be held against him just because there isn’t much further up to go from his extraordinary standard?
The argument for Raleigh is ultimately an arbitrary, emotional one. Judge has won twice, and it’s cool that a catcher hit 60 home runs. It’s sort of like not wanting to give Meryl Streep another Oscar in a year when a different actress who has never won has a compelling role. If Judge doesn’t win, the most valuable player award will cease to have any meaning.