Since the United States and its allies imposed a bevy of sanctions on Russia in response to its barbarous invasion of Ukraine, many commentators have called the West’s economic warfare strategy a failure. However, the recent trajectory of Russia’s currency, the ruble, throws cold water on the narrative that sanctions are inconsequential.

Early signs were ominous for Moscow. The ruble plummeted to a record low of 140 per dollar in the immediate aftermath of the invasion. But then it seemed the storm had passed; the ruble stabilized, even recovering to about 60 per dollar for most of last year. This brief stabilization was weaponized by pro-Russia advocates, heralding the resilience of Moscow’s financial infrastructure and painting a picture of a Russia impervious to Western sanctions.

Yet a closer examination reveals a different story. The ruble has again started its downward march, touching 100 per dollar despite a global uptick in oil prices — traditionally Russia’s financial safety net. Historically, the ruble’s fortunes rose and fell in tandem with global oil prices. The recent decoupling, however, lays bare the vulnerabilities in Russia’s economy that sanctions have effectively targeted.

The sanctions imposed post-invasion were not mere slaps on the wrist. Freezing of the Russian Central Bank assets, the expulsion of major Russian banks from the SWIFT financial-transaction system, and sanctions on elites and even Vladimir Putin were unparalleled in their scope and intensity. Despite Moscow’s chest-thumping, these measures have had a tangible impact. The recent decision by the Russian Central Bank to stop buying foreign currency in domestic markets — a strategy to guard the ruble from further plummeting — is a testament to that.

It’s not just the data that’s revealing. The narrative spun by Russian state media about the ruble’s “apparent strength” during its brief recovery phase seems almost comical now. Such optics-driven posturing can only be maintained for so long before reality sets in. As the ruble continues to flounder, the much-touted robustness of the Russian economy, under the weight of sanctions, appears more fiction than fact.

Another fascinating revelation is Moscow’s accumulation of foreign reserves. While Russia claims to have amassed a staggering $600 billion in gold and foreign-exchange reserves, the opacity surrounding these figures raises the question: Is this another smokescreen to obfuscate the real impact of sanctions?

Sanctions are not merely punitive measures. They are a reflection of international will, an embodiment of global condemnation. While they may not yield immediate results, their slow burn can erode even the most resilient economies.