On Monday, StPetePolls.org released a poll of 1,227 likely general election voters in Florida. The poll contains good news for Republicans and pro-lifers. The poll has Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris by over 5 percentage points. It also has Amendment 4, which would place legal abortion in Florida’s state constitution, receiving only 54 percent of the vote — six points short of the 60 percent threshold necessary for passage. The poll also finds that 38 percent of Floridians oppose Amendment 4, one of the highest levels of opposition in any Florida poll.

What makes this poll different than the numerous other surveys of Sunshine State voters is that it presents the results of those who already voted. Among Floridians who already cast ballots, 57.5 percent said that they supported Amendment 4, with 37.3 percent opposed. Another 5.2 percent of respondents either would not reveal how they voted or did not vote on the ballot question.

It should be noted that early voters tend to skew Democratic and liberal. The poll bears this out. This StPetePolls.org poll finds that 55.0 percent of Democrats planning to vote had already voted. In comparison, only 48.1 percent of Republicans planning to vote had already cast ballots. Furthermore, Kamala Harris is performing 9.4 percentage points better among those who have already voted when compared to those who plan to vote.

Most of the polls on Amendment 4 indicate that it is not reaching the 60 percent threshold needed for victory. Furthermore, research on direct democracy shows that most ballot propositions lose support as Election Day draws near. Additionally, most people who are undecided tend to vote against direct-democracy questions. A pro-life victory on Amendment 4 is far from a sure thing. However, the recent poll from St. PetePolls.org does show that a pro-life victory is within reach.