C hairman Xi Jinping has promised to control Taiwan within this decade. Like Germany, Taiwan does little for itself; it relies on America for protection. Taiwan spends only a token 2.6 percent of its GDP on defense. War games show that only American forces (including aircraft striking from Japanese bases) can repel an amphibious assault on Taiwan. That means both Japan and the U.S. must be willing to fight World War III, shouldering hundreds of thousands of casualties and economic chaos.

Unlike in the case of Germany, however, America has not pledged to fight for Taiwan. Congress has never passed a binding resolution. When President Joe Biden offhandedly said we would fight, his staff publicly walked back his words. His actual actions do not show resolve. For four years, he has reduced our navy. Equally uncommitted, former president Donald Trump has refused to declare whether he would fight for Taiwan. He has consistently criticized those under America’s security umbrella who don’t pay their “fair share” for their own defense. Any objective observer would counsel Taiwan to tend to its own freedom, and not rely upon America to do it.

In a showdown with China over Taiwan, our next president will be hard-pressed to persuade the public to go to war. There’s a good chance that either Biden or Trump would stay out of the fight and treat Taiwan as Ukraine was treated — offering arms from a safe distance. Without the U.S in the fight, however, Taiwan’s defenses are inadequate. And if Taiwan falls, the U.S. is cut off from Japan and South Korea and ceases to be the dominant power in Asia.

Is there a way out? Absolutely. Taiwan must show America that it has sacrificed its comfort to provide for its own defense. It must increase its defense budget to 7 percent, matching China’s. That will cause political turmoil, but so too will going the way of Hong Kong. As critical, Taiwan must seize the revolution in naval warfare pioneered by Ukraine. By employing unmanned drones, Ukraine drove the Russian navy from the lower Black Sea. Drones are ubiquitous in combat.

This year, impoverished Ukraine aims to produce a million drones. Taiwan can easily exceed that number, and then use them to great effect. For an amphibious assault, China would have to bring together more than 2,000 ships (rivaling D-Day 1944) and transit 100 miles of flat ocean, with no hiding place. Deploying swarms of 1,000 drones targeting each Chinese ship would dramatically advantage the defender. Granted, Xi can still destroy Taiwan’s infrastructure and economy. But like Khrushchev after the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, he would be deposed in historic disgrace after failing to seize the island.

Taiwan cannot rely upon the U.S., which is dribbling out thousands of drones (not even hundreds of thousands) because our congressional-military-industrial complex is sclerotic. Like all its weapons, U.S. drones are far too expensive to procure in bulk. The Pentagon has also imposed severe humanitarian restrictions on developing AI weapons. Taiwan itself is even more laggard, budgeting for 700 “military grade” and more than 7,000 “commercial grade” drones for its armed forces. This feeble gesture amounts to 1 percent of Taiwan’s skimpy military budget. Taiwan currently has $19 billion in backlogged orders of costly weapons from the U.S. It should reallocate at least $4 billion of that to develop a suite of 1 million drones, varying from simple kamikazes to AI-enhanced predators.

Once the amphibious assault — Xi’s rook — is taken off the geopolitical chessboard, he loses much of his military leverage. Xi still retains a menu of “gray zone” stratagems, including imposing a blockade to strangle Taiwan. Such bullying tactics at sea can be stymied by the operational superiority of our navy, provided our own president is so resolved.

Subverting Taiwan from within remains plausible. Cold War II, in all its economic, political, cyber, and military dimensions, will persist for decades. But Taiwan can give itself an edge with AI-enhanced drones, which have changed the face of naval warfare. “The way to prevent war with China,” Alex Karp, CEO of the defense-focused tech firm, Palantir, said recently, “is to ramp up . . . tech startups that produce software-defining weapons systems that scare the living f*** out of our adversaries.”

Yet Taiwan, while leading in the delivery of civilian high-tech software chips, lags in bringing AI to its own military. On a scale of 100, the Global AI Index ranks China at 62, and Taiwan at an anemic 25. That can be quickly changed. Because of government insistence, for instance, inside two years Singapore rocketed from tenth to third place on the AI index. Taiwan can do the same. It has abundant capital, skilled labor, and an installed production base.

To radically improve its deterrent requires Taiwan both to increase and to reallocate its defense budget. Many of its political and military leaders will refuse. They will foolishly gamble that the next president — Trump or Biden/Harris — will continue to do all the heavy lifting. This is both unwise and unworthy of a free people. To quote Pericles from the Peloponnesian War in 431 b.c., “Freedom is the sure possession of those alone who have the courage to defend it.” The drone revolution provides Taiwan with its best chance to defend its freedom. The odds are Taiwan will not do so, and will regret its choice.