Americans, knowing in their bones that democracy and republican government can be imperiled by global affinities, are naturally pulling away in disgust.
A fter the meltdown in the Oval Office between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and President Donald Trump, European leaders began rushing out statements of support for the embattled Ukrainian leader. They came hot and fast from France, the Czech Republic, and even incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany, who said, “Dear Volodymyr, we stand with Ukraine in good and in testing times. We must never confuse aggressor and victim in this terrible war.”
European leaders are partly cooperating with progressive opinion in the United States in the fiction that Donald Trump and JD Vance are turning tail and rushing headlong into the arms of Vladimir Putin. Such an impression may actually work to Zelensky’s benefit: He is now in the impossible position that other nationalists have faced when their zeal and sacrifices meet the demands of a more powerful neighbor for territorial and political concessions. He cannot bless negotiations that end the war by dismembering his country’s territory while providing no ironclad security guarantees. He is not lying when he says he would resign to get Ukraine NATO membership; it would make him a national hero. But he may find himself, like the late President Rhee of Korea, simply sidelined. The United States negotiated the end of the Korean War with the North Koreans and the People’s Volunteer Army of China without the government of South Korea, because no such government could have democratic legitimacy and sign on to the failure to reunify the country. South Korea did not begin its acknowledgement of the armistice until the 1990s.
But, whatever the Europeans say about supporting Ukraine to the bitter end, we can see their revealed preferences. They do not consider Russia’s destruction of Ukraine an imminent threat to their security. They, like the United States, are increasing the conditions on Ukraine for assistance.
Look first to Germany. In a 2022 speech, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz committed to reversing the entire drift of policy in Germany, set under Angela Merkel, to meet the challenge. This historic project was called “Zeitenwende,” or “times-turning,” and it included ambitious goals of helping Ukraine fight for democracy, reducing dependency on Russian energy while still pursuing climate goals (possibly using nuclear energy again), taking a tougher approach to Russia, using Germany to strengthen the European Union and NATO, and arming Germany to defend itself. Except, all of this was abandoned, such that two years later, policy study groups in Germany declared the project dead.
Germany looked into its armory for what it could give Ukraine and found completely unusable Puma tanks, so it promised a small number of Leopard tanks, then it looked for excuses not to send them if the U.S. didn’t send Abrams tanks, then it found that the Leopard tanks it wanted to send were also not battle-ready. It’s not working to reverse this.
Germany does buy more American liquefied natural gas for energy — resentfully, because of the blowup of Nord Stream 2. But Europeans have largely bypassed the frightful sanctions they imposed on Russia in 2022 by relying on Russian proxies as a pass-through.
Europe created no wartime economy to match the Russian production of weapons, particular shells, and drones. Around the time of the Munich Security Conference two weeks ago, the Trump administration began asking European governments what they were willing to commit in terms of peacekeepers to Ukraine. Poland replied: none. What an astonishing answer from one of the only NATO members that takes defense seriously. The United Kingdom has indicated some interest in sending peacekeepers, so long as they are protected by Americans. The rest of the European countries fell into an embarrassed silence, or simply returned to asking for what they always want: verbal and moral input with no material or moral commitment.
As the sharp-eyed authors of the EuroIntelligence news source put it, Europeans are trying hard not to notice what has become obvious. In geopolitics, talk goes only so far:
We have yet to meet a European with a worked-out strategy to defeat Vladimir Putin. We are red-liners. We argue from first principles. We claim that we will support Ukraine for however long it takes. This idea worked spectacularly well for the ECB in the fight against speculators. But it does not translate to wars.
Ukraine has lost the war. We have no strategy to change this. Of all the nonsense Trump said and tweeted last week — and most of it was nonsense — he was correct on the essential issue — that the war is not winnable. He told us during his campaign that he wants to cut a deal.
The Europeans are in their unfortunate situation on the cats’ table of international diplomacy because they outsourced strategic thinking. The US acts, we react. Trump speaks. We are outraged.
Indeed. The entire project of pulling Ukraine away from its domination by Russia was supposed to economically benefit Europe. That was the very meaning of the economic cooperation proposed ahead of the 2014 Maidan revolution. And yet Europe cannot be arsed to provide much beyond paper promises, loans, and the value of seized Russian assets.
In the weeks ahead, there will be a real political campaign to blame, if not Donald Trump, then America itself, for the debacle in Ukraine. Either Trump was too enamored of Putin, or Americans themselves were too parochial and mulish to do what the policy mandarins know is the only moral thing to do.
Instead we should realize that the American government worked well beyond the bounds of American public opinion and in Ukraine’s behalf for years. Europe could not rouse itself to assert its will in its own backyard. The only thing they are willing to do is cancel elections and arrest candidates when they express native displeasure with the current policy in Ukraine. Americans, knowing in their bones that democracy and republican government can be imperiled by global affinities, are naturally pulling away in disgust.