The race is seen as being a very closely contested fight between Senate minority whip John Thune and John Cornyn.

With the 2024 presidential election now in the rearview mirror, Republican senators who are thrilled with their new majority are preparing for another high-profile election of a more personal kind: the race to succeed Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell, the longest-serving Senate leader in American history.

In the closing days, what’s striking to many Republican Hill staffers and Senate GOP conference members is the sheer number of senators who remain undecided ahead of next Wednesday’s closed-door secret ballot vote.

The race is seen as being a very closely contested fight between Senate minority whip John Thune (R., S.D.) and John Cornyn (R., Texas), a former whip himself who served two terms as Senate GOP campaign chief.

Also in the running to succeed McConnell is dark horse candidate Rick Scott (Fla.), the 2022 midterm Senate GOP campaign chief who just won reelection this cycle. Most sources tell National Review they’d be surprised if he won more than low double digits in the first round. After scoring ten votes in a secret ballot leadership challenge against McConnell after the 2022 midterms, Scott is now trying to run in the MAGA lane, courting grassroots GOP leaders and social-media influencer types – including the controversial Laura Loomer – as a way to style himself the leader of the Trumpiest flank of the conference.

Scott’s team insists he is running to win. But even if he loses, the goal is to set himself up as the leader of the “MAGA” flank, and, through ginning up protests votes, help the rightmost flank of the conference gain concessions from whoever comes out on top. ( Axios reported Thursday evening that weeks before the election, the former president privately dismissed Scott’s bid as “not serious,” though a Trump spokesman refuted that reporting.)

Whoever wins this race will have an enormous responsibility in working with Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson to get Republican priorities across the finish line. It’s unclear as of this writing whether President-elect Donald Trump will endorse in the race. Though given his characteristic unpredictability, he could pick a favorite sometime ahead of the vote (but the secret ballot nature of the contest means Trump’s influence is limited.) All three candidates have sought Trump’s favor, and Thune and Cornyn – who have been critical of the president-elect in the past – have spent the better part of the past year smoothing over relations in MAGA world and helping this year’s class of Senate candidates fundraise and campaign.

Oklahoma senator Markwayne Mullin – a Thune ally and Trump campaign surrogate this cycle — has urged the president-elect to stay on the sidelines and let process play out on its own to avoid wasting political capital, since he will ultimately have to work with whomever is elected. Mullin has signaled to Trump he defers to his judgment — and has also publicly acknowledged that Trump is his own man and will make his own decision about the matter. (Beyond Mullin, Thune has public support from his fellow South Dakota senator Mike Rounds as well as the private support of 2024 Senate GOP campaign chief Steve Daines. Earlier today, Cornyn scored the backing of Missouri Senator Josh Hawley, marking his first public endorsement in the race.)

A Trump adviser did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the president-elect’s endorsement plan.

Thune has also advised Trump to stay neutral. “I think it’s in his best interest — to stay out of that,” Thune said on CNBC Thursday morning. “These Senate secret ballot elections are best left to senators. And he’s got to work with all of us when it’s all said and done. But whatever he decides to do, that’s going to be his prerogative, as we know.”

Senators are scheduled to hash out their priorities during a leadership forum next week. For the rightmost flank of the conference that has long butted heads with McConnell, the goal is to get a bigger seat at the governing table by highlighting key priorities in the next leader, such as passing fewer high-dollar spending and Ukraine-aid bills, an open amendment process, more time to debate legislation, and limiting the next leader’s power. That lattermost agenda item – which is being spearheaded in part by Utah senator Mike Lee (see here) — has frustrated McConnell allies like Senator Thom Tillis (R., N.C.), who say this quest to weaken the next Senate GOP leader will only serve to undermine GOP priorities given Democratic leader Chuck Schumer’s chokehold over his own members.

Cornyn made an early play for this flank of the conference early this year by calling for a rules change to instate term limits for the Republican leader back in March and telling the conference it’s his goal to fix what he called a “broken” Senate GOP. He has also spent recent months touting his large Texas donor network that has helped him raise more than $400 million over his career for Senate Republicans, including $33 million this cycle. Thune has signaled he is eager to listen to members’ concerns as well, and has raised more than $33 million across his accounts, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, and directly for candidates, a source familiar with the matter tells NR, insisting that money fundraised this cycle is a better “apples to apples comparison” between candidates.

Many on Capitol Hill see Thune and Cornyn as ideologically comparable, meaning much of this contest will end up coming down to personal relationships.

Privately, many sources push back on the likelihood that the rightmost flank of the conference will get much out of their demands during next week’s pre-election forum. When ex-Speaker Kevin McCarthy was seeking the gavel in January 2023, he had to concede to a list of concessions from House GOP hardliners, most notably lowering the threshold for a snap vote of confidence to just one member (which of course led to his ouster later that year). The Senate is a completely different animal, and the closed-door nature of this vote limits the influence of any outside grassroots pressure campaign, intra-conference concession fight, or even (still hypothetical) Trump endorsement.