Donald Trump has won Indiana’s eleven electoral votes and Kentucky’s eight electoral votes, according to the Associated Press, which called the races in the two Republican-heavy states at 7 p.m. In-person voting ended in those two states at 6 p.m., though both states cover two time zones.
The AP also called Vermont for Kamala Harris at 7 p.m. Vermont, a solid Democratic state, has three electoral votes. The AP called the race so early based on its AP VoteCast, a comprehensive survey of the 2024 electorate.
At 7:30 p.m., the AP called West Virginia and its four electoral votes for Trump.
None of the results in the four states is a surprise.
Four years ago, Trump won Indiana with 57.1 percent of the vote, Kentucky with 62.1 percent, and West Virginia with 68.6 percent.
Polls Show a Dead Heat
As they have for weeks, polls show the presidential race between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris is essentially tied. The RealClearPolitics polling average shows the race is a coin-flip, with Harris ahead nationally by only a hair, 48.7 percent support for the vice president to 48.6 for Trump, well within the margin of error.
But Trump is similarly ahead very slightly in the top battleground states, according to the RCP polling averages. Those state races are also well within the polling margin of error.
The presidential race will likely be decided by which candidate had the strongest ground game, how independents and late-deciders break, and how many voters cast ballots for third-party and protest candidates, or simply skip the race altogether.
Control of the Senate will likely come down to ten battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin.
The Democrats currently control the upper chamber with a functional 51-49 seat majority, but the Republicans have a good chance at winning back control with a good night on Tuesday. Democrats are defending 23 of the 34 Senate seats up this year.
The GOP is overwhelmingly favored to capture the Senate seat held by retiring Democrat-turned-independent Joe Manchin and appears poised to defeat Democrat Jon Tester in Montana. Longtime Ohio Democrat Senator Sherrod Brown is also facing a tough challenge from Republican Bernie Moreno in a state that is increasingly a GOP stronghold.
To maintain Senate control, Democrats are hoping for upset wins against Ted Cruz in Texas or Rick Scott in Florida.
Like the presidential contest, the contest for control of the House is a bona-fide toss-up, and whichever party wins will do so with the narrowest of majorities. The non-partisan Cook Political Report is predicting ten Democratic seats and 12 Republican seats will be toss-up races. In total, roughly 70 congressional districts will be in play nationwide.
Two states to watch for the House are the Democratic bastions of New York and California. Each state has a handful of ultra-competitive seats where vulnerable Republican incumbents are fighting to hold on against well-funded Democratic challengers. The slow pace of California’s vote counting means some of those seats could take potentially weeks to call, leaving the house majority in limbo after the senate and presidency are decided.
If Democrats reclaim the House, a decisive factor could be the party’s significant fundraising advantage over the GOP. Democrats spent $35 million more on ads than Republicans in the 25 most competitive races over the past month and in 22 of those races the Democratic candidate had the fundraising advantage, Punchbowl reported. In 15 of the 25 races, Democrats have a spending advantage of $1 million or more.
In the presidential race, voters will likely get their first sense of how things are going with results out of Georgia and North Carolina, two East Coast battlegrounds that typically count votes fast. On the other hand, it could take days to get final results from battlegrounds like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada.
Trump will be hosting an Election Night party at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach County, Florida. Harris is slated to watch results come in at her alma mater, Howard University in Washington D.C.