If the flight of up to 19 Russian drones into Polish territory was some sort of accident — claims to that effect from Moscow and its Belarusian surrogates have, even by their standards, been unconvincing — it was one that was both large and very convenient. For some time now, Moscow has been waging “non-linear warfare” against NATO, actions ranging from sabotage to cyberattacks to smaller drone incursions. They fall below the threshold of war, as that term is usually understood, but go well beyond the jostling often seen between rival states or blocs.
Non-linear warfare, which is difficult to respond to (NATO is not going to go to war with Russia over a cut undersea cable) is designed to damage, intimidate, and wear down an opponent, to probe for its weak spots (such as that cable), to rehearse the early stages of a conventional attack, and, frequently, to test the political and military response to one. The launch of those drones on Tuesday night, which mercifully only caused property damage, almost certainly falls into this last category.
That makes it vital that NATO responds to Moscow in a way that deters rather than encourages aggression. The drones were, along with Russia’s intensifying onslaught on Ukraine, yet another reminder from the Kremlin that, despite a relatively cordial meeting in Alaska and talk of peace talks, it remains determined to win its war with Ukraine: Those who support Kyiv will, in its view, have to deal with the consequences.
NATO’s response, therefore, must be firm, and it should be focused on both the political and the practical. The latter will bolster the former. It was thus encouraging that the incoming drones faced Polish F-16s, Dutch F-35s, an Italian AWACS, and a German air-defense system. NATO is a mutual defense pact — Poland was not left on its own. It is, however, worth noting that the four drones that were shot down were relatively cheap. The jets and the missiles that disposed of them are expensive.
The countries on NATO’s eastern flank have been calling for the creation of a “drone wall” along their border, a call now backed by Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the EU Commission. That needs to happen. But countries further to the west need to toughen themselves against drone attacks too. Drones are a danger that is not going away, and against which traditional defense systems have only limited effect.
NATO countries also need to strengthen, as far as is possible, their defenses against non-linear warfare, whether in cyberspace or in the physical world. Baltic Sentry, a mission to increase surveillance of the Baltic Sea and its underwater infrastructure, was one recent step in the right direction, but there needs to be many more.
Beyond reinforcing its own defenses against non-linear warfare, the U.S. should again reaffirm its commitment to Article 5, the clause in the NATO treaty that spells out its mutual defense obligations. Deterrence only works when it is credible, and the more the U.S. does to remind Moscow of the risks that it could be running by putting that article to the test, the less risk there is that the Kremlin will try.
Words should be backed up by deeds. Increasing the weaponry, including air-defense equipment, that we send to Kyiv would be a useful signal to Moscow, as would a greater NATO presence in Poland. The Trump administration should also reverse its recent decision to eliminate “Section 333” spending on assistance to allied militaries, a good portion of which goes to those in countries neighboring Russia.
On top of that, the doubt hanging over a separate program, the Baltic Security Initiative — to assist the Latvian, Lithuanian, and Estonian militaries — which is currently being “evaluated,” should be removed. The initiative should be continued. By next year, the Baltic trio and Poland will all have satisfied President Trump’s insistence that NATO countries should spend 5 percent of GDP on defense. Even before Tuesday night, any reduction of the U.S. commitment to northeastern Europe looked like a false economy. Now it would be an open invitation to the Kremlin to step up its undeclared war on the West.