New York Republicans may have one bright spot in their year-long effort to dissociate from disgraced Representative George Santos — a strong GOP contender to potentially succeed him. 

Businessman and retired NYPD Detective Mike Sapraicone has emerged as the early favorite in the Republican race to succeed Santos in his Long Island and Queens congressional district, a host of New York political operatives and House Republican members tell National Review, though sources caution Nassau County GOP Chairman Joe Cairo has the final say and the GOP race is still fluid, as is the timeline for replacing the scandal-embroiled congressman.

“The chairman was in favor of me announcing when I did in July. But again, that comes with no promises,” Sapraicone tells National Review, who has also spoken with the Queens Republican chairman about his candidacy. “If you know anything about Chairman Cairo and the Nassau GOP, the chairman’s only concern is to do what’s best for the party, so the party can succeed and win.”

Empire State political operatives are anxiously waiting to see whether the scandal-embroiled congressman — who has pleaded not guilty to a 23-count superseding indictment — can survive yet another attempt to expel him on Friday after a damning Ethics Committee Report published earlier this month found “substantial evidence” of criminal wrongdoing. If Santos is booted from the lower chamber this week, New York’s Democratic governor Kathy Hochul will then to set a date for a special election, where parties typically choose their own nominees. 

If Santos survives this expulsion vote and serves out the rest of his term, the candidates will proceed through the primary process and the winners will then face off in a general election. (Santos is not running for reelection.) 

It’s crucial Nassau Republicans pick a strong candidate in New York’s Third District, which voted for Joe Biden in 2020 but trended redder during the 2022 midterms amid New York’s crime wave. Every New York congressional seat is critical to preserving the House GOP’s razor-thin majority, hence newly elected House Speaker Mike Johnson’s plans to head to New York this weekend to fundraise for the House GOP’s campaign arm as well as a handful of swing district members. Adding to the chaos is the possibility that New York Democrats will redraw the state’s congressional maps in their favor ahead of 2024, should their legal challenge succeed.

At this juncture, Federal Election Commission filings show Sapraicone — who has been in contact with Cairo since January — is the most successful Republican fundraiser in the race to succeed Santos, raising more than $550,000 through the third quarter of this year. Sapraicone’s campaign tells NR that his current fundraising figure stands around $600,000 as of this week, with much of that cash coming from his own pockets.

Also in the running on the Republican side are Afghanistan veteran and former JPMorgan vice president Kellen Curry, businessman Daniel Norber, personal injury lawyer Gregory Hach, among others.

But sources say Sapraicone — who grew up in Queens and has lived in Long Island for thirty years — is a known commodity in Nassau County with a history of donating to both the Democratic and Republican parties there. His wife, Eileen Daly-Sapraicone, is an ex-prosecutor and current judge on Nassau County’s supreme court.

Sapraicone’s tough-on-crime campaign leans heavily into border security, public safety, and restoring integrity in the district. “Though I am a Republican, I’m an American. And I feel it’s so important that we start getting back to just doing things that are right, that are common sense,” Sapraicone says.

In the event that Santos is expelled this week, Democrats may soon rally behind former Congressman Tom Suozzi, who previously represented the district, though his decision to mount an unsuccessful primary challenge against Hochul last cycle could affect the party’s calculus. Other declared candidates in the crowded Democratic field include former state Senator Anna Kaplan and Nassau County Legislator Josh Lafazan.

As New York Republicans hope and pray for Santos’s expulsion from the House on Friday, Sapraicone says he can feel some momentum on the ground, though like others he cautions that his fate is in the Nassau GOP’s hands.

“The chairman’s said to me many times: ‘Mike, I’m going to make a choice based on who I believe can win, and who can move this party forward,” Sapraicone says of Cairo, who did not immediately respond to requests for comment. “You never know until that moment comes up, right? But I think I’m in a good place.”