Republicans will narrowly hold onto their slim House majority, completing a governing trifecta after Donald Trump decisively defeated Vice President Kamala Harris and Republicans reclaimed several key Senate seats.
Trump will now have both chambers of Congress at his disposal to follow through on his campaign promises and undo the Biden administration’s legacy on a range of issues. Unlike Trump’s first-term, Senate and House lawmakers are almost entirely behind him, likely setting the stage for the passage of the president’s top agenda items and the further remaking of the American judiciary.
Representative Juan Ciscomani’s win in Arizona’s sixth district late Wednesday night put the GOP over the 218-seat mark, with nine races yet to be called by the Associated Press. Republicans have flipped six House seats since Election Day while Democrats have only picked up one.
Republicans had key pickups in Pennsylvania’s seventh and eighth districts, North Carolina’s sixth, thirteenth, and fourteenth districts, and Michigan’s seventh district.
“They said it couldn’t be done. But the American people have spoken,” National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Richard Hudson (R-NC) said in a statement released after Ciscomani’s win.
“As Chairman of the NRCC it has been my mission since day one to hold our House majority. Today it is clear that we accomplished that mission,” he added.
With several races outstanding, the exact size of the GOP majority remains unclear, but it’ll be tight, which means the House Freedom Caucus will be empowered to potentially create intra-GOP conflict on issues currently dividing the party.
Sitting House Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.), a close Trump ally, retained the gavel in a Wednesday vote after spending the past year and change navigating the GOP’s squabbles while occasionally working with Democrats to advance legislation. Trump repeatedly praised Johnson on the campaign trail and efforts to give Johnson the boot ultimately went nowhere after the chaotic and short-lived tenure of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R., Calif.).
Trump has tapped GOP Representatives Elise Stefanik of New York, and Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz of Florida to join his administration as ambassador to the U.N., attorney general, and national security adviser, respectively, which will further shrink the GOP majority until replacements can be seated. Gaetz resigned his seat Wednesday evening after Trump announced the attorney general nomination, exiting Congress just days before the House Ethics Committee was set to release a report on its investigation into allegations that he had sexual encounters with underage girls, according to several outlets.
On the Senate side, Republicans have secured a 53-seat majority under the leadership of Senator John Thune (R., S.D.), who was elected in a closed-door vote on Wednesday.
Tale of the Tape
Republican performance in California proved integral to retaining the majority: GOP California lawmakers John Duarte and Michelle Steel are both in a position to barely hang on against tough Democratic opponents. The only Republican in California to go down was Representative Mike Garcia, who lost to businessman George Whitesides in the 27th district after serving two full terms.
Besides that, Republicans retained a bunch of right-leaning seats necessary for their majority. Michigan Republican John James, Pennsylvania Republican Brian Fitzpatrick and Texas Republican Monica De La Cruz are among the GOP lawmakers who comfortably held onto semi-competitive seats. Arizona Republicans David Schweikert and Juan Ciscomani are in position to hold onto toss-up seats, with Ciscomani’s coming against progressive Democratic rival Kirsten Engel in a tough race.
The GOP flipped Michigan’s seventh district, an open seat vacated by Democratic Senate candidate Elissa Slotkin, and Colorado’s eighth district, where GOP contender Dave Evans ousted Representative Yadira Caraveo. In Pennsylvania, Republicans Robert Bresnahan and Ryan MacKenzie knocked off Democratic incumbents in two toss-up races; and in North Carolina, Republicans Addison McDowell, Brad Knott, and Tim Moore did the same. Republicans are on the cusp of another major flip in Alaska’s at-large district, with Republican Nick Begich winning by a couple points against incumbent Democrat Mary Peltola.
But, Democrats comfortably won blue-leaning seats in Pennsylvania and other states where Trump and down-ballot Republicans otherwise had strong performances. Pennsylvania Democrat Chris Deluzio, Kansas Democrat Sharice Davids, and Ohio Democrat Emilia Sykes are some of the candidates who maintained their seats.
There were other bright spots for Democrats that ensured they would continue to be a powerful House minority. Democratic candidate Kristen McDonald Rivet retained Michigan’s toss-up eighth district after Representative Dan Kildee (D) vacated it, and Representative Gabe Vazquez (D) held New Mexico’s hotly contested second district. Democrats were also able to flip a toss-up district in Oregon with challenger Janelle Bynum’s close victory over incumbent Lori Chavez-DeRemer.
By winning the majority, Republicans barely overcame a massive fundraising disadvantage in many districts considered to be toss-up contests. But, the GOP’s fundraising problems may have played a role in tilting some toss-ups into the Democratic column.
Democrat Eugene Vindman, a Trump impeachment whistleblower, dramatically outraised Republican challenger Derrick Anderson on his way to winning Virginia’s seventh district, a seat vacated by Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger. Elsewhere in the state, Republican Representative Jen Kiggans held Virginia’s GOP-leaning second district by four points, giving her a second term.
In Washington’s third district, incumbent freshman Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) bested GOP rival Joe Kent, another toss-up race where the Democrat vastly outraised their opponent. Perez and Kemp’s battle was a particularly bitter fight between a relatively moderate Democrat and a hard-right Republican ideologue who Perez hammered for having alleged ties to white nationalists.
Results were mixed for New York’s all-important gang of GOP incumbents whose victories two years ago were paramount to the Republican majority. GOP incumbent Marc Molinaro lost New York’s 19th congressional to Democratic opponent Josh Riley. Close by, Democratic incumbent Pat Ryan handily defeated Republican challenger Alison Esposito, holding onto his seat by a whopping 16-point margin.
Incumbent Republican Brandon Williams was defeated in blue-leaning NY-22 by Democratic opponent John Mannion. Anthony D’Esposito, another vulnerable Republican, barely lost to challenger Laura Gillen for a seat in Nassau County, Long Island east of New York City, giving Democrats three New York flips this cycle.
Better news for Republicans came when freshman Representative Mike Lawler (R) topped former Representative Mondaire Jones (D) to hold New York’s 17th, a much-watched race that Cook Political Report shifted to lean Republican leading up to election day. Likewise, freshman Representative Nick LaLota comfortably held New York’s first district farther east on Long Island against Democrat John Avlon, a veteran liberal journalist.
More good news for Republicans could be found in Iowa, where multiple Republican incumbents maintained competitive seats. Representative Zach Nunn won Iowa’s third district by four points over Democratic opponent Lanon Baccam. A closer contest took place in Iowa’s first, as incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks took an extremely narrow lead over Democrat Christina Bohannan, defying famed pollster Ann Selzer’s final survey showing her down double digits. Bohannan will likely request a recount after being down roughly 1,000 votes.
Similarly close contests took place in Maine’s second district, where Democrat Jared Golden is currently up less than a thousand votes over GOP challenger Austin Theriault, and Ohio’s ninth district, with longtime Representative Marcy Kaptur leading GOP contender Derek Merrin by just over 1000 votes. The races in Maine and Ohio are likely headed to automatic recounts because of state laws requiring recounts for elections decided by less than 0.5 percent.